Posted on 07 Feb 2022
Billet exporters continue to press for higher prices in Southeast Asia, Kallanish notes. Expectations of a post-Lunar New Year price surge, tight supply and rising scrap have propped up the market.
A 15,000-tonne cargo of Malaysian 130mm square blast furnace billet for March shipment was ordered at $665/tonne cfr Manila late in the week through 28 January. Russian 125mm billet was also booked at $665/t cfr at around the same time. “It was booked by a trader trying to sell to Manila,” an importer says. He and others are unsure if an offer from the same Russian mill during the 4 February week at $670-675/t cfr Manila was actually from the trader.
Supply of imported billet has been tight in recent weeks as suppliers have withdrawn in anticipation of future price gains. A trader is advising Philippine buyers to book the Russian material at $670-675/t cfr before prices rise further. He says another Russian mill expects prices will hit $700/t cfr when China reopens this week. “Billet costs in Vietnam are high and export tonnages from Indonesia and Malaysia are limited,” he adds.
Indian blast furnace billet export offer prices have shot up to $660/t fob India, or around $695/t cfr Southeast Asia. One Indian mill’s export price idea has risen to $675/t fob, an Indian trader says.
Meanwhile, regional rebar markets are trailing behind billet import prices. Domestic rebar prices are still flat because of poor demand, a Jakarta mill executive says. Current billet import prices are not feasible because local rebar prices are still low in Malaysia, a local mill manager says. Domestic 16-25mm diameter rebar is priced at MYR 2,950/t ($706/t) delivered.
Thai local mills are gradually hiking domestic rebar prices to keep up with higher international billet prices. Induction furnace rebar prices are prevailing at THB 23,200/t (713/t) ex-works, while electric arc furnace rebar is at THB 23,800/t ($722/t) after hikes of THB 500-800/t since end-January.
A Philippine longs producer says domestic rebar prices in the Philippines are rising too slowly to support the spike in billet prices. He also questions the sustainability of the current run-up in prices, especially in China which has been propelling the regional import market. Kallanish assessed 5sp/ps or Q275 120/125/130mm square billet on Friday at $665/t cfr Manila, up $7.5 on week.
Source:Kallanish
