Posted on 20 Jan 2022
The CIS hot rolled coil export market remains subdued amid modest availability and demand, with only Ukrainian material available, Kallanish learns from market participants.
But suppliers may return following increases to Indian offers, which have recently been the most competitive. Higher costs and the massive sell-out over the past two months have encouraged Indian suppliers to considerably increase their offers in the past week. Additionally, European domestic sales are buoyant on low inventory and the automotive sector is picking up, while imports are drying out due to quota allocation fulfilment.
China is also seen as "waking up", with firming sentiment expected in the post-Lunar New Year period. The push from higher energy costs, low inventories and reduced production, along with expectations of ongoing capacity cuts, are all supporting prices, traders say.
The only supplier in the market – the Ukrainian mill – has been offering HRC at $770-780/tonne fob Black Sea, depending on grade and tonnage, mainly to Turkey. However, buyers were not paying much attention to the offer. With Russian suppliers still absent from the market, and February production still available, this may change, as Turkish demand appears to be thawing. Demand in the Middle East and North Africa is also picking up a little, along with indicative prices, but sales are still missing at higher prices to establish the ascending trend, traders note.
Overall sentiment is hopefully bullish, but volatility prevails, and there are unlikely to be strong price movement before the Lunar New Year holidays end in early February. Russian mills have several maintenances booked, while a Ukrainian supplier is still struggling with metallurgical coke production, suggesting no price reductions would be made for sales either, traders conclude.
Source:Kallanish
