Posted on 18 Oct 2021
The World Steel Association revised higher its forecasts for demand in East and Southeast Asia excluding China in its Short Range Outlook last week. The demand recovery in developing Asia is continuing despite the continued presence of Covid-19, Kallanish notes.
In Japan, worldsteel notes that demand is continuing to recover led by manufacturing. Despite the chip shortages, automotive output is up from 2020 lows and civil engineering spending is also driving demand growth. Private construction investment however continues to lag. Apparent steel demand in 2021 is now expected to hit 58 million tonnes, up from 52.6mt in 2020 and from a previous forecast of 56mt. In 2022, Japan is expected to consume 59.2mt of steel, up from the previous forecast of 58.8mt.
In South Korea meanwhile demand is recovering to 2019 levels faster than expected. 2021 apparent consumption is expected to reach 53.4mt this year, compared to a previous forecast of 51.5mt. 2020 demand had fallen to 49mt. This has been driven by recovering exports and investment in manufacturing, worldsteel says, while construction is being supported by civil engineering and residential construction projects. A jump in new shipbuilding orders will also provide a sustained boost to future demand. In 2022 worldsteel expects Korea apparent steel demand to reach 54.2mt, up from a previous forecast of 52.8mt.
ASEAN steel demand is meanwhile also being revised higher despite the continued burden of Covid lockdowns in many countries. 2021 is now expected to see ASEAN steel demand recover to 74.8mt, from 70.1mt in 2020 and from an earlier forecast of 73mt. Demand could then improve further to 78.8mt in 2022, up from a previous forecast of 77.7mt.
Anti-Covid measures are having an impact however. Apparent steel demand in Vietnam in 2021 is now expected to reach 23.9mt, up from 23.3mt in 2020 but down from a previous forecast of 24.5mt. In 2022 Vietnamese demand will recover further to 25.1mt, but this is still lower than the previous forecast of 26.3mt.
Source:Kallanish
