Posted on 08 Jul 2026
Domestic prices for billets in China are likely to soften further during this year's July-December half, reflecting the ongoing supply glut and consequent rise in inventories, according to Mysteel's latest semi-annual report on the commodity.
During H1, strengthening cost support and growing overseas demand provided strong impetus to billet prices, while sluggish domestic demand and mounting stocks loomed as negatives, the report noted.
As such, Chinese billet prices witnessed a small decline in H1, with the price of Q235 150mm square billet in Tangshan city in North China's Hebei province – a bellwether reflecting the sentiment prevailing in China's billet sector – averaging Yuan 2,983/tonne ($439/t) during January-June. This was lower by a small Yuan 10/t compared to the average in H1 last year, according to Mysteel's assessment.
Billet production stayed high in the first half, as mills responded to healthy profits from billet exports after disruptions to supplies from Middle East countries created a huge supply gap in regions such as Southeast Asia, the report highlighted.
During the January-June half, domestic and export sales of billets by the steelmakers Mysteel regularly samples totaled 17.09 million tonnes, higher by 4.8% on year.
The Middle East conflict caused major global suppliers such as Iran to curtail billet shipments, which allowed China to make up the shortfall. According to the latest data from the country's General Administration of Customs, China exported 6.75 million tonnes over January-May, up by a huge 43.2% on-year.
The bounty for Chinese traders in billet exports encouraged speculative buying, with distributors opting to accumulate billet stocks in hopes of gaining even greater profits in future, the report noted. Together with sluggish domestic demand, this caused a significant rise in billet inventory levels during H1.
For example, at end-June Mysteel assessed the volume of billets stockpiled in three ports and two commercial warehouses in North China's Tangshan city – the hub of Chinese billet sector – at 2.11 million tonnes, some 52.2% higher than at end-June last year.
In contrast, domestic demand for billets remained subdued during H1, as thin profit margins on finished steel sales led most re-rollers to hold a cautious stance towards replenishing. For instance, re-rollers in Tangshan consumed an average of 35,300 tonnes/day of billets in the first six months, lower by more than 14% on year, according to Mysteel's survey.
Looking ahead to the current July-December half, domestic billet market fundamentals are likely to weaken further and impact prices. Although billet availability at home is projected to contract during H2 – as steelmakers continue to focus on export orders – worsening profitability among re-rollers for the finished steel items they make could cause them to be even more restrained in their purchasing, the report predicts.
On the other hand, billet exports are seen staying elevated this half, partly easing the downside pressure in the domestic market. Mysteel estimates that billet exports for the whole year will reach as much as 18.5 million tonnes, higher by nearly 25% from 2025.
Source:Mysteel Global
