Posted on 09 Apr 2026
Construction steel prices in China may fluctuate slightly this month, mainly from the shift in long steel inventory levels and firming production costs, according to Mysteel's latest monthly report on the sector. Prices this month, like those in March, will generally mark time overall, the report suggests.
During the first half of this month, the pace of recovery in end-user sectors such as infrastructure and real estate development may be slowed by seasonal rains, weighing on long steel prices.
On the other hand, better weather conditions for outdoor construction predicted for the latter half of the month would drive up demand again, easing inventory pressure and supporting construction steel prices, the report suggests.
Those for steel longs strengthened slightly in March, mainly as a symptom of the higher production costs being borne by steel mills as the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East caused prices of main steelmaking raw materials to jump, the report pointed out.
Higher ocean freight rates led the Mysteel SEADEX 62% Australian Fines index last month to surge by 9.1% or $9.2/dmt on month to hit $110.2/dmt CFR Qingdao on March 31. In tandem, on the same day Mysteelassessed the national price of HRB400E 20mm diarebar at Yuan 3,332/tonne ($488/t), higher by Yuan 28/t from the level on February 28.
But the pace of recovery in steel demand still fell short of expectations last month, with spot transaction levels being lower than those twelve months earlier. One possible reason for the on-year decline was the timing of this year's Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday which fell in mid-February – two weeks later than last year – during which all markets were closed, Mysteel Global noted.
By tonnage, during March the daily spot trading volume of long steel items including rebar, wire rod and bar-in-coil among the 237 Chinese trading houses Mysteelmonitors averaged 86,603 tonnes/day, slumping by nearly 20% on year.
On the other hand, by end-March most steelmakers, especially electric-arc-furnace (EAF) mills, had resumed operations after the CNY festival, leading to a significant gain in output of steel longs.
By March 31, weekly rebar production among the 137 Chinese steelmakers under Mysteel's coverage had recovered by 19.8% or 327,700 tonnes on month to 1.98 million tonnes. Meanwhile, weekly output of wire rod among the 92 surveyed mills Mysteel checks also gained on month, rising significantly by 17.2% or 122,900 tonnes to 847,800 tonnes as at the end of March.
The mismatch in the pace of recovery after the CNY break between demand and supply caused inventory levels of steel longs to stay high last month.
As of March 26, the stocks of rebar and wire rod held in commercial warehouses in the 35 cities Mysteel follows had totaled 7.47 million tonnes, gaining by 13.8% or by 904,400 tonnes from end-February.
For this month, long steel output is expected to rise further but the room for expansion will be limited, with the weekly production level of rebar being estimated by Mysteel at around 2.1 million tonnes. If this proves accurate, the output level would be almost the same aslast year's average, which would likely add some supply-side pressure to the market, Mysteel forecasts.
On the other hand, the thinning of long steel inventories that began in late March may continue, thanks to higher end-user demand this month, resulting in better long steel market sentiment, the report suggests.
Source:Mysteel Global
