Posted on 02 Apr 2026
Chinese steel prices will continue their upward trajectory in April, buoyed by firm production costs and a steady recovery in steel demand at home and abroad, Mysteel's chief analyst Wang Jianhua predicts in his latest monthly outlook.
Last month, the country's steel prices ended a two-month fall and rebounded in tandem with the rise in world energy prices, with the national composite steel price averaging Yuan 3,437/tonne ($499.1/t) including the 13% VAT during March 1-31, higher by 0.8% from the average price in February, according to Mysteel's assessment.
The outbreak of hostilities in Middle East has disrupted global maritime trade and kept pushing oil prices higher, leading to a sharp increase in the cost of China's imports of key steelmaking raw materials including iron ore and coking coal, Wang noted.
By the end of March, the daily freight rate for Capesize vessels on the key route from Port Tubarao, the top iron ore dispatch terminal in Brazil, to eastern China's Qingdao port, had surged 29% from end-February to reach $30.2/t, hovering around the highest level since July 2024. Similarly, the rate on the key route from Australia's largest iron ore shipping terminal, Port Hedland, to the same destination had risen 11.5% on month to $11.1/t, according to Mysteel's tracking.
"With raw material costs climbing, steel production costs in China are projected to increase by approximately Yuan 150/t overall in April, which will likely force steel mills to hike their offer prices," Wang observed.
On fundamentals, domestic steel demand is set to continue recovering in April – China's traditional peak month for steel consumption – as building contractors step up the pace of construction while the mild weather lasts, according to Wang.
For the international market Iran, a major exporter of semi-finished steel items in the Middle East, is currently unable to ship large volumes amid the ongoing conflict, Wang remarked. This is expected to open more opportunities for China's steel exports, he believed.
Iran's steel billet exports have typically averaged around 6 million tonnes/year in recent years, and with its supply contracting sharply, China is expected to fill 1.5-2 million t/y of the shortfall, according to Mysteel's analysis.
During January-February this year, China's billet exports totalled 1,8 million tonnes, up 16% compared with the same period last year, according to the statistics of the country's General Administration of Customs.
On the other hand, Chinese steel supply should expand only mildly in April, as rising raw material costs will likely dent steelmakers' enthusiasm for production, Wang predicts.
During March, the total hot metal production by the 247 blast furnace (BF) steelmakers under Mysteel's tracking averaged 2.27 million tonnes/day. Although output this month is estimated to rise to some 2.36 million t/d on average, this would be lower by 2.1% compared with the same period last year, according to Wang.
Under such circumstances, steel inventories across China will probably show a marked decrease during this month, providing further support for steel prices, he predicts.
By the end of March, the total stocks of the five major carbon steel products held by steelmakers and trading houses across the 35 Chinese cities under Mysteel's monitoring had fallen for two weeks straight to reach 19 million tonnes, the latest data show. Wang projects that the volume will drop by another 2.5 million tonnes by the end of this month to some 16.5 million tonnes.
Source:Mysteel Global
