Posted on 24 Mar 2026
Chinese rebar and hot rolled coil futures rose on Monday due to surging coking coal futures, reports Kallanish.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded, May 2026 rebar contract closed at CNY 3,154/tonne ($457/t) on Monday, up CNY 31/t versus the prior trading day. The same contract for HRC gained CNY 33/t to CNY 3,330/t.
The supportive coking coal futures began to surge on Friday night and continued on Monday. The May 2026 coking coal contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit its daily limit up on Monday.
The market believes bullish traders acted on several grounds: elevated oil prices, which strengthened expectations of coal demand growth; soaring LNG prices, which triggered expectations of coal substitution; and the recovery of China's pig iron production. Oil prices dropped below $100/barrel after China market close on Monday, however, after US President Donald Trump suggested talks with Iran were progressing to end the war.
Although Chinese steel futures rose, they remained relatively cautious. The most-traded contract for HRC futures did close at its highest level since 8 January. But rebar futures’ highest trading rate on Monday did not even surpass last Wednesday's level, with its closing price only the highest since 30 January.
Aside from the lack of growth in iron ore prices, some market participants believe futures values’ slow growth is mainly due to the fact that demand expectations for steel itself have not improved significantly. Moreover, the surge in coking coal futures is sentiment driven and carries the risk of a pullback.
Source:Kallanish
