Posted on 08 Jan 2026
BMI Industry Research has raised its 2026 coking coal price forecast to $190/tonne, up from its previous estimate of $180/t, Kallanish notes.
While analysts remain bearish on Chinese steel, they expect a sharper contraction in domestic coal mining to tighten the market and support seaborne prices.
The research house says in a note that while it expects Chinese steel production to fall 4% in 2026 to 935 million tonnes, it is also forecasting a greater decline in domestic coking coal production in China of 8% to 454mt.
"This will support prices for seaborne coking coal, although robust exports from land borne suppliers including Mongolia and Russia will cap prices, in our view," it says.
For BMI, anti-involution measures will continue to limit any major production increase at coking coal mines in the Shanxi region. It adds that 2025 production is already expected to finish 5% lower year-on-year at 493mt.
The forecast adjustment follows a surprise surge in Australian coking coal prices, which recently climbed above $200/t. This rally was triggered by the October closure of all road border crossings between Mongolia and China, forcing Chinese buyers to pivot toward Australian seaborne suppliers.
However, BMI expects this rally to cool. As shipments from Mongolia and Russia stabilise, prices are projected to dip back below the $200/t mark in the first quarter of 2026.
Looking further ahead, BMI maintains its long-term forecasts of $184/t for 2028 and $180/t for 2029. This stability is rooted in the rapid expansion of India’s steel sector. BMI predicts that between 2025 and 2034, India will overtake China as the world’s largest importer of coking coal, providing a long-term floor for global prices.
Source:Mysteel
