Posted on 18 Dec 2025
The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar in China's domestic market turned negative on December 11 and continues to widen, Mysteel's latest data show, reflecting the weakness of HRC prices in contrast to the relatively resilient rebar prices, Mysteel Global learned.
On December 16, Mysteel assessed China's national average price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,288/tonne ($467/t) including the 13% VAT, lower by Yuan 37/t from one month earlier, while that of HRB400E 20mm dia rebar under Mysteel's assessment registered Yuan 3,295/t including the VAT for an on-month rise of Yuan 27/t.
On Tuesday, the price spread between HRC and rebar was a negative Yuan 7/t, marking a major reversal from the positive spread of Yuan 57/t recorded one month ago, according to Mysteel's assessment.
Chinese HRC prices have been constrained by weak fundamentals lately, primarily the imbalance between supply and demand. Domestic demand for hot coils has shrunk further as end-users have slowed purchases for the winter lull, while the decrease in output has been limited, sources explained.
Mysteel's weekly survey showed that over December 4-10, total production of HRC among the sampled 37 Chinese mills regularly tracked had reached 3.08 million tonnes, only down 1.6% on month. Tellingly, as of December 11 inventories of HRC held by the sampled steelmakers totalled 840,300 tonnes, swelling by 8.4% from one month before.
Although HRC stocks held by Chinese traders have declined, the decrease has been limited compared with the drop in warehouse stocks of rebar, Mysteel Global noted.
As of December 11, HRC stocks stored in warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities under Mysteel's tracking totalled 4.23 million tonnes for an on-month fall of 5.8%, while inventories of rebar in warehouses operated by traders in the 132 Chinese cities monitored by Mysteel had thinned by a substantial 15.8% to an 11-month low of 5.22 million tonnes during the same period.
In parallel, rebar stocks held by the 137 Chinese steel mills sampled under Mysteel's survey had also declined by a large 12.2% on month to 1.4 million tonnes as of December 11, the lowest since late January, mainly due to the fast decrease in output as mills reacted to worsening profit margins on their sales of the product.
During December 4-10, their rebar output totalled 1.79 million tonnes, slipping by 10.6% from one month earlier and marking the lowest since late February, according to Mysteel's survey.
Source:Mysteel
