Posted on 16 Dec 2025
Production of hot-rolled coils (HRC) among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel declined during November 27-December 3, pulling back by 1.8% or 56,000 tonnes on week to 3.09 million tonnes, the latest survey results showed.
Although falling raw material prices helped restore the steel mills' profit margins to some extent during the survey week, weakening demand for hot coils led the makers to reduce HRC production to ease the pressure on their sales teams.
As a result, the HRC rolling capacity utilization rate among the sampled mills diminished further by 1.43 percentage points on week to average 78.87% during the survey week, while their average operational rate also fell by a large 3.13 percentage points to 75%, the survey findings indicated.
Despite reducing output, hot coil inventories being held by the sampled steelmakers had still mounted by 5.1% on week by December 11 to 840,300 tonnes, further reflecting the weakness of demand for the flat steel.
On the other hand, HRC stocks at the 194 commercial warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors stood at 4.32 million tonnes as of December 11, lower by 87,700 tonnes or 2% on week. This was still higher by 22.8% on year, however.
In addition, the Ministry of Commerce and the China's General Administration of Customs had jointly announced last Friday that exports of certain steel products including HRC would be managed through an export licensing system from January 1 next year, signaling tighter regulations on the flat steel exports for the coming year, as reported.
The announcement has sparked concerns about the impact the measure might have on exports of key steel items such as hot coils as uncertainties about the way the new scheme will be administered is causing market anxiety, Mysteel Global noted.
Meanwhile, in addition to the notice of the new export regulations pending in just two weeks, the steel market mood was also darkened when the Central Economic Work Conference concluded last Thursday without hoped-for new policies to bolster the economy -- and so help steel consumption – being announced. These two pieces of news, together with waning support from raw material prices, may lead HRC prices to follow a downward trajectory in coming weeks, market sources suggested.
On December 12, Mysteel assessed the national price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,284/tonne ($466/t) including the 13% VAT, down by Yuan 44/t or 1.3% on week.
The same day, the most-traded HRC contract for next May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,232/t, lower by a large Yuan 93/t or 2.8% from the settlement price a week earlier, the bourse's data showed.
Source:Mysteel Global
