Posted on 15 Dec 2025
An initial reading of the latest leaked CBAM benchmark values last week suggests default values could become prohibitive, levying costs approaching €300/tonne ($350.62/t), several coil importers tell Kallanish.
Despite the complexity of calculating them, sources say the actual value parameters would be “workable” if confirmed. Importing hot rolled coil from lower-emission Asian mills is estimated to incur €30-60/t in CBAM charges.
Buyers note all default values have been raised, including for countries previously seen as undervalued, such as China and Thailand. “The revised document doesn’t overhaul the system, but it makes it more complicated and harder to calculate,” a source says. The actual values benchmark remains low at 0.044 for hot rolled coil, versus default benchmark standing at 0.072 for scrap-based producers and 1.37 for blast furnace operators.
Importers are budgeting €60-70/t to continue buying from Asia. A mill source warns the emissions declaration process could prove extremely lengthy, while another buyer highlights the uncertainty created by the absence of a confirmed list of accredited inspectors.
Asian coil continues to arrive into Europe, but at a slower pace, as earlier bookings arrive at southern and northern ports. Indian HRC is expected to be penalised most heavily due to its coal-intensive steelmaking route, although costs vary by mill. One Indian supplier is offering HRC into southern Europe at around €510/t cfr and will have an estimated CBAM cost of €92-93/t.
Indian and Indonesian tonnages remain competitive, but customs clearance and quota constraints remain the key barrier to imports, a service centre says.
European coil prices, meanwhile, continue to firm. HRC is trading at €600-630/t base ex-works, while cold rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil are rising to €730-750/t base delivered in Belgium, France and Italy. Poland remains lower, at around €720/t. A German mill offering at €730-740/t delivered for HDG and CRC is said to be struggling to secure bookings.
“I think the market will rebalance by Q2,” a source notes. “Traders will gain clarity on CBAM costs in Q1, and visibility will improve.”
Source:Kallanish
