Posted on 04 Dec 2025
China's construction steel prices are expected to rise further this month, supported by low inventory levels as well as improving market sentiment, suggests Mysteel's latest monthly report on the sector. But faltering demand in the second half of the month may exert some downside pressure on the prices, the report also warns.
The domestic construction steel market gained some momentum in November, with prices firming on month. On November 28, Mysteel assessed China's national price of HRB400E 20mm dia rebar, a bellwether of the domestic long steel market sentiment, at Yuan 3,291/tonne ($466/t) including the 13% VAT. The increase of Yuan 31/t from October 30 marked this year's second largest on-month gain so far, the report pointed out.
In terms of inventories, stocks of construction steel items including rebar and wire rod held by both steel mills and traders trended downwards throughout November, serving as the primary factor underpinning long steel prices.
The tonnage held in commercial warehouses in the 35 cities Mysteel follows totalled 4.43 million tonnes as of November 27, dropping by a large 11.6% or 578,500 tonnes on month. Moreover, the combined inventory of rebar and wire rod held by the 137 Chinese steel mills Mysteel covers stood at 1.93 million tonnes as of the same day, lower by a larger 17.8% or 418,200 tonnes on month and hitting an 8-month low.
Construction steel stocks are seen continuing to decline during the first half of December thanks to the resilient demand, the report predicts. However, during the latter half of the month stock levels may hold steady an even begin mounting as falling temperatures in northern regions prompt building contractors to pause work on projects until next spring.
On the production front, domestic construction steel output in China dropped overall last month compared with October and served as another support for construction steel prices, the report indicated.
By end-November, weekly rebar output among the 137 Chinese steelmakers under Mysteel's tracking had retreated by 3.1% or 65,100 tonnes on month to 2.06 million tonnes. In parallel, weekly output of wire rod among the 92 surveyed mills Mysteel monitors also declined on-month, falling by 8.5% or 76,400 tonnes to 821,700 tonnes.
But overall, long steel output may recover mildly this month, thanks to improved profitability, especially among mini-mills, the report noted, citing declining prices of steelmaking raw materials.
As of November 28, China's electric-arc-furnace steel makers could earn Yuan 74/t on average from selling their rebars, reversing the Yuan 55/t average profit loss in late-October, according to Mysteel's assessment.
Source:Mysteel Global
