Posted on 03 Dec 2025
Indian hot and cold rolled coil offers to Europe are largely unchanged this week, with traders saying mills are increasing prices following the leaked provisional CBAM benchmark values even as buyers delay purchasing decisions, Kallanish learns from market sources.
HRC offers held steady at $560-565/tonne cfr Antwerp/Bilbao, or $500-505/t fob Mumbai, for S235 grade, end-December/early-January shipment. Some $570-575/t cfr levels are also considered to be achievable, sources add.
Despite muted European demand, selective buying continues as traders reposition around shifting CBAM expectations.
“Mills have accepted the hit by offering lower prices,” a Mumbai-based trader notes.
Kallanish analysis suggests Indian HRC exporters could face €222/t ($258/t) CBAM costs under the default approach, or €72-170/t via the verified-emissions route in 2026 (see Kallanish passim).
One trader sees verified costs as low as €45/t, highlighting the unusually wide range of potential outcomes and its impact on delivered competitiveness.
India’s HRC (category 1A) import quota was fully exhausted on 1 December, according to EU Taric data compiled by Eurometal.
CRC offers are stable w-o-w at $710-715/t cfr, or $650-655/t fob, with fourth-quarter quota utilisation at 37% remaining.
Plate offers are similarly unchanged w-o-w at $680-690/t cfr Antwerp/Bilbao and HDG at $770-780/t cfr, with PPGI maintaining a $200/t premium.
Metal coated (category 4A) is quota is 30% available with 18,500t remaining and 2,300t awaiting allocation. Metal coated (category 4B) at 50% unutilised with 66,500t remaining and 16,800t awaiting allocation. Organic coated (category 5) is fully exhausted.
In Vietnam, HRC offers remain steady w-o-w at $485/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, or $473/t fob Mumbai. A Vietnamese source cites weak downstream demand and trade sensitivities limiting import appetite, with India-origin offers squeezed between Korean parity and China’s broader range in the region.
In the GCC, an Indian-origin HRC offer was heard $5/t higher w-o-w to $505/t cfr GCC ports or $488/t fob Mumbai, mid-January shipment, SAE1006 grade. The region remains a stable outlet, although competitive Russian, Chinese and Far Eastern-origin pricing are undercutting India on key pipeline and re-rolling grades in the region (see separate article).
The leaked CBAM values are already influencing Indian offer strategies into Europe, tempering buyer interest and tightening mill margins. Indian producers are resorting to tactical discounting to protect volumes across regions with EU buyers delaying commitments,
The unusually wide CBAM cost range for 2026 adds a new layer of risk, prompting mills to reassess delivered competitiveness across all regions.
Sources say near-term price stability is likely, but sensitivity to CBAM-related signals remains high as Indian mills balance Europe-focused adjustments with opportunistic sales in Vietnam and the GCC.
Source:Kallanish
