Posted on 25 Nov 2025
Statistics released by the Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) last Friday suggest that the Japanese steel industry remains headed for record low steel production this calendar year, despite an on-month pickup last month.
The preliminary JISF data showed that crude steel production in October totaled 6.85 million tonnes, up by 7.5% from September but down by 1% from October last year and making for the seventh consecutive monthly on-year fall. Daily crude steel output last month averaged 221,000 tonnes, higher by 4% from September's average of 213,000 tonnes, though the extra day in October contributed to the daily rise.
By process, steel produced via the blast furnace-BOF route reached 5.062 million tonnes, higher by 6.9% from the previous month but down 0.8% on year, while electric furnace output topped 1.79 million tonnes, higher by 9.1% from September but lower by 1.8% from October 2024.
The on-month jump in EAF output shouldn't surprise as mini-mills such as Tokyo Steel Manufacturing were still conducting summer maintenance on facilities in September, as Mysteel Global reported. In fact, EAF steel has remained negative on year for 15 consecutive months.
October's production result took the cumulative January-October total to 67.33 million tonnes, lower by 4.1% from the first ten months of last year. Annualized out, this would make for a calendar 2025 total of about 80.8 million tonnes, well below last year's total of 84 million tonnes and making for a fifth straight on-year decline. Indeed, the total would be the lowest since 1969 when Japan produced 82.16 million tonnes but at that time -- unlike now -- the Japanese mills were racing to commission new capacity to meet roaring demand.
During this month and next, there seems little likelihood that changed business circumstances will allow the mills to quickly crank up production. In the construction industry for example (the sector that consumes a third of Japanese steel), starts on new building projects remain slow due to rising materials costs and the chronic shortage of construction workers.
"There is a recovery in construction demand after the extreme heat in the summer, but although the market conditions are temporarily on an upward trend, there is also a sense of slowness," according to Michiyuki Fujita, president of construction steel sales company Kanto D-bar Steel. "The demand environment has deteriorated with general contractors focusing on current purchases," he told industry daily Tekko Shimbun last week.
In September, the shipments of small steel bars for use as rebars to the domestic market totaled only 495,000 tonnes, down 4.7% from the same month a year ago and making for the 16th consecutive on-year decrease, according to statistics released by the Japan Non-integrated Steel Producers' Association earlier this month.
Production for export seems unlikely to show any spectacular rebound either. Last Thursday, Japan's finance ministry released early numbers for steel exports in October which reached 2.5 million tonnes, down 1% from the same month last year.
Source:Mysteel Global
