Posted on 12 Nov 2025
China's steel prices are expected to rebound in November as most market participants are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the domestic steel market. This is according to the most recent survey of the steel sector's health conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which covered major wholesale steel markets in South China, Shanghai, and Tianjin.
Any downside room for domestic steel prices should be limited this month, the NDRC believes, saying that the results of its latest survey indicated a strengthening of market sentiment compared to October.
Even as the typical seasonal weakness in early winter looms, Chinese steel prices are still gaining support from a combination of pro-growth fiscal policies and production constraints, the NDRC notes.
The construction of government-backed infrastructure projects is underpinning demand for steel, it suggests, while restrictions aimed at reducing atmospheric pollution over major urban centres are tightening supply. These factors, combined with stable raw material costs, are expected to limit the downside room for market prices in the near term, the commission argues.
The survey assessed six key indices, with the Sales Price Expectation Index exceeding the 50% threshold to stand at around 54% and marking a rise of 7.3 percentage points from the month prior. This suggests that market confidence has improved regarding prices, it said.
Similarly, the Purchase Price Expectation Index had continued to outperform and stood at 61.7% for this month, also representing a gain of 7.2 percentage points from October.
Nonetheless, the survey results showed that the steel market is somewhat downbeat about demand this month, pointing to inventories remaining largely stable. This is reflected in the NDRC's Sales Volume Expectation Index for this month which had decreased to 42%, down by 4.6 percentage points from October.
The weakness in sales looks set to deter inventories from falling significantly. Consequently, the Inventory Expectation Index is seen easing to 49.1%, a tiny decline of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month.
The survey respondents expect the cost of selling steel products to rise slightly along with purchase prices for finished steel products, reducing profit margins.
In response, the Sales Cost Expectation Index stood at 63.3%, up by 2.9 percentage points on month. Meanwhile, the Sales Profit Margin Expectation Index remained below the 50% threshold to stand at 44.7%, despite showing an on-month rise of 4.7 percentage points.
Source:Mysteel Global
