Posted on 10 Nov 2025
Following their strong rebound at the end of October, China's hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices headed south again during the first week of November, casting a shadow over the future trend in flat steel prices. The supply-demand imbalance is likely to widen further this month, with HRC prices expected to continue sliding, Mysteel's latest monthly report on the flat steel indicates.
HRC output is seen declining mildly this month, reflecting the mismatch between supply and demand and the narrower profit margins steel mills can earn on hot coils, market sources noted.
However, the integrated mills and coil re-rollers are not expected to make large cuts in their HRC output this month, the report said, arguing that the orders the mills have can still support their production for a period and that for now, HRC fundamentals don't indicate that savage cuts will be necessary.
Over October 30-November 5, HRC production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel declined by 1.7% or 54,000 tonnes to register 3.18 tonnes, the latest survey data showed.
On the other hand, demand for hot coils from the manufacturing sector – especially that from the white goods, automobile and machinery manufacturers – is projected to slow as the winter off-season for consumption approaches. Meanwhile, the application of trade-in subsidies for appliances, vehicles, mobile phones and other items is being suspended in some parts of China as funds are being depleted, as Mysteel Global has reported, and this may also weigh on demand for flat steel products.
According to white goods market monitor ChinaIOL, China's scheduled production of the three most popular home appliances – air-conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines – is projected to slump by 17.7% to reach 28.47 million units in November, as reported.
In tandem, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector retreated in October to reach 49, down 0.8 point on month, with the sub-index for new orders declining by 0.9 point on month to sit at 48.8, the NBS statistics showed.
Meanwhile, HRC exports are likely to see a retreat this month as declining export prices in the past month depressed steelmakers' appetite to export their coils, according to the report.
By November 6, Mysteel assessed export prices of SS400 3mm HRC at North China's Tianjin port at $440/t, down by a sharp $40/t on month, as reported.
The relatively ample supply against softening demand for the flat steel will likely cause HRC stocks sitting at steel mills and commercial warehouses nationwide to mount further this month.
By November 6, HRC inventories at 194 commercial warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors stood at 4.49 million tonnes, higher by 0.67% or 30,000 tonnes on week. As of the same day, HRC stocks at steel mills had inched down by a tiny 0.3% or 2,300 tonnes, though.
If the pace of destocking at steel mills remains slow while inventories held by traders continue mounting, HRC prices may see further declines in coming weeks, the report warns.
On November 6, Mysteel assessed China's national spot price of Q235B 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,317/tonne including the VAT, lower by Yuan 81/t or 2.4% on month.
Source:Mysteel Global
