Posted on 22 Oct 2025
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel dipped for a second week during October 9-15, retreating by a tiny 0.45% to 3.22 million tonnes, the results of Mysteel’s latest survey showed.
The lower output partly reflected the pressure felt by steelmakers and rolling mills from loose supply and tepid downstream demand. As a result, the HRC rolling capacity utilization rate among the 37 sampled mills during the sample week slid by 0.37 percentage points on week to sit at 82.22%, while the operational rate declined by 1.56% to 79.69%, the survey results indicated.
The reduced output led coil inventories held by the 37 mills to edge lower by 6.9% to 778,500 tonnes by October 16.
On the other hand, weaker-than-expected demand from end-users caused HRC stocks at the 194 commercial warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities nationwide Mysteel monitors to mount by 156,600 tonnes or 3.5% by October 16 to top 4.6 million tonnes, the highest level since March 14.
The intensifying inventory overhang at commercial warehouses is weighing on hot coil prices, observed a Shanghai-based analyst. If stock levels fail show any apparent improvement soon, this may prompt traders to discount their prices further to ease their stock pressure, resulting in a wider decline in flat steel prices, she noted.
On October 17, Mysteel assessed the national price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,330/tonne ($468/t) including the 13% VAT, lower by Yuan 69/t or 2% on week.
On the same day, the most-traded HRC contract for January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,204/t, lower by Yuan 81/t or 2.5% on week, the exchange's data showed.
The earlier disparity in profit margins for mills between HRC and rebar has narrowed over the past week following improvements in rebar market fundamentals, Mysteel Global notes. Contracting rebar output and a rise in demand have led those steelmakers that had earlier redirected their hot metal away from rebars to making coils to lift longs production once again. Market players are now watching to see whether HRC production will be reduced noticeably in the next few weeks.
Source:Mysteel Global
