Posted on 15 Oct 2025
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel edged down by a marginal 0.4% during October 2-8 to sit at 3.23 million tonnes, the results of Mysteel’s latest survey showed.
Despite the small drop in HRC output, production of hot coils remained relatively elevated during the period, when compared with the 3.08 million tonnes recorded over October 3-9 2024. This was likely because most blast furnace mills making HRC were still able to make a profit last week, in contrast to the losses suffered by mills producing other steel products such as rebar.
By October 10, the profit margins earned by the blast furnace mills regularly monitored by Mysteel making HRC averaged Yuan 8/tonne ($1.1/t), which compares an average loss of Yuan 22/t on sales of rebar during the same period, Mysteel's data show.
Meanwhile, HRC rolling capacity utilization among the 37 sampled mills slid by just 0.36 percentage points on week to sit at 82.59%, while the operational rate stayed flat for the fourth consecutive week at 81.25%, the survey results indicated. Though the majority of Chinese manufacturers slowed or halted operations during October 1-8 to enjoy the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, most integrated steelmakers maintained normal production, Mysteel Global notes.
Against the steady supply of hot coils was the weaker-than-expected demand for HRC that had been softening even before the break. When the holidays finally started, most traders and buyers left work to enjoy the respite, leading to a rapid build-up of stocks at steel mills and in distributors' warehouses across the country.
Inventory held by the 37 surveyed mills and at the 194 commercial warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities that Mysteel tracks both moved higher over October 2-8, with the former rising by 24,000 tonnes or 3% on week to 836,000 tonnes and the latter surging by 386,800 tonnes or 9.5% from the previous week to 4.44 million tonnes.
Moreover, the pre-holiday doldrums haven't eased even after market participants reopened for business, with the mounting stocks seen weighing further on HRC prices going forward.
On October 13, Mysteel assessed the national price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,370/tonne including the 13% VAT, lower by Yuan 28/t or 0.8% from September 30, the last working day before the holiday.
On the same day, the most-traded HRC contract for January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,261/t, lower by Yuan 13/t or 0.4% from the pre-holiday level, the exchange's data showed.
Source:Mysteel Global
