Posted on 14 Oct 2025
Global steel demand should bottom out in 2025 and recover slightly in 2026 amid global economic resilience, continued public infrastructure investments in most regions and easing financing conditions. This is despite escalating global trade tensions, says worldsteel in its October short-range outlook published Monday.
The organisation did not issue its bi-annual outlook last April due to uncertainty created by the US imposition of tariffs (see Kallanish passim).
Global finished steel demand will be flat on-year in 2025 at 1.749 billion tonnes, with a reduction in China offsetting growth in most other regions, including the EU and especially India – which will see a 9% hike.
In 2026, global demand should rebound 1.3% on-year to 1.772 billion tonnes, with the EU and India accelerating and Mexico rebounding from a 2025 decline. This is despite China growth seeing another drop, albeit at 1% versus 2% in 2025 as the housing market bottoms out.
The global growth will be driven by easing steel demand decline in China, coupled with strong growth in developing economies like India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Critically, worldsteel also anticipates the long-awaited return of steel demand growth in Europe.
However, challenges remain. “First, the global manufacturing sector continues to face a squeeze from elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Second, escalating trade tensions are having a direct, negative impact on steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, such as machinery and automotive components. Finally, geopolitical uncertainties act as a major deterrent, chilling both consumer and investor confidence, and dampening steel demand across key markets,” says worldsteel economics committee chair Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada.
A tougher global trade environment poses a significant downside risk for China, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, lingering financial pressures on local governments could constrain infrastructure investments, further dampening demand.
EU growth reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending in the continent, combined with improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and improvements in real household income, worldsteel concludes.
Source:Kallanish
