Posted on 17 Sep 2025
Indian hot and cold rolled coil export prices to Europe remain steady week-on-week due to continued CBAM methodology uncertainty and safeguard quota exhaustion risks, Kallanish learns from sources.
A market participant says Indian exporters will explore the Vietnamese, Middle Eastern and possibly Malaysian markets to "destock" some of its supply in end-September and October.
Another source notes, EU buyers are unwilling incur the risk of buying from India for October and November shipments or December and January arrivals as CBAM is expected to come into effect from 1 January 2026.
Another trader anticipates CBAM methodology clarity by October.
Last week, Indian mills re-entered the Vietnamese market after a long absence, seeking alternative export outlets amid limited India-EU trading activity (see Kallanish passim).
Moreover, sources are expecting a post-monsoon domestic demand recovery to help absorb some of the oversupply currently seen in the Indian market (see separate article).
As of Tuesday, Indian-origin HRC offers were flat w-o-w at $605-610/tonne cfr Antwerp, or $545-550/t fob Mumbai, for S235 grade, October/November shipment.
As per EU Taric data, India’s July-September HRC (category 1A) quota was 67% available as of 15 September, with 144,579 tonnes unutilised and 3,876t awaiting allocation.
CRC offers remained at $735-740/t cfr Antwerp, or $675-680/t fob Mumbai, though some traders say these can be negotiated closer to $710-715/t cfr levels.
No fresh HR plate offers are heard this week either, due to quota exhaustion concerns. The last indications were at $680-695/t cfr Antwerp, or $625-640/t fob Mumbai, for S275/S235 grades.
Hot dipped galvanised (HDG) or coated coil offers were unchanged w-o-w at $785-800/t cfr Antwerp, or $725-740/t fob Mumbai, for 1mm Z275/DX51 grades. Pre-painted (PPGI) or colour-coated coil offers remain at a $200/t premium over HDG for 0.5mm Z140 grade.
In Vietnam, Indian-origin HRC initial offers were heard at $525/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, or $495-510/t fob Mumbai, for SAE1006 base grades, November shipment. But buyers deemed these levels uncompetitive. Freight to Vietnam is estimated at $15-30/t.
Last week, an Indian-origin HRC deal was heard concluded for 30,000t at $507/t cfr Vietnam or $477-492/t fob east coast of India, for November shipment, SAE1006 grades, 2-4mm thick. Sources say the deal closed due to a variety of favourable factors such as Vietnam’s safeguard duty on China, unusually low pricing by Indian mills and CBAM uncertainty related export weakness in India’s traditional markets
In the Gulf Cooperation Council, Indian HRC offers are heard at $525/t cfr Jebel Ali, equivalent to $505/t fob Mumbai, for 2mm SAE 1006 base grades, October/November shipment. Freight to GCC ports is estimated between $15-25/t. Sources note an India-China HRC offer price spread of $20/t is “decent” for the GCC market.
Source:Kallanish
