Posted on 10 Sep 2025
China's steel prices are expected to come under pressure in September and cancel out last month's gains, mainly because supply remains loose. This is according to the most recent survey of the steel sector's health conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which covered major wholesale steel markets in South China, Shanghai, and Tianjin.
The NDRC says that domestic steel prices should weaken modestly this month, following its latest survey which showed a softening in market sentiment compared to August.
The survey assessed six key indices, with the Sales Price Expectation Index falling back below the 50% threshold to stand at 48.9% and marking for a drop of 7.3 percentage points from the month prior. This suggests that market participants are rather pessimistic regarding prices.
In contrast, the Purchase Price Expectation Index had continued to outperform and stood at 56% for this month, despite a decline of 4.1 percentage points from August.
The survey results showed that the steel market is upbeat about demand in September – a typical peak demand month for most sectors – and points to sales volumes increasing noticeably. This is reflected in the NDRC's Sales Volume Expectation Index for this month which has increased to 64.3%, up by 9.6 percentage points from August.
The significant improvement in sales looks set to reduce inventories in turn. In response, the Inventory Expectation Index is seen dropping to 43.9%, a decline of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month.
The survey respondents expect the cost in selling steel products to rise further in tandem with purchasing prices, even as the increase will likely slow down significantly compared to last month. Likewise, a rise in the cost of sales spells smaller profit margins.
Consequently, the Sales Cost Expectation Index stood at 58.57%, down by 9.7 percentage points on month. Meanwhile, the Sales Profit Margin Expectation Index will remain below the 50% threshold to stand at 38.3%, showing an on-month decrease of 3.4 percentage points.
Source:Mysteel Global
