Posted on 26 Aug 2025
The US domestic scrap market ended the third week of August in a stable position; however, crosscurrents are becoming more apparent.
Although US mills are pressuring down prices of higher grades to get some relief, obsolete grades continue to hold on. Domestic scrap prices are thus still mostly balanced.
The well-known impasse between mills and scrap suppliers continues. Following significant forward buying ahead of the Brazil-origin pig iron tariff exemption, prime grades, especially busheling, are under pressure due to hot rolled coil fragility and impending mill disruptions.
On the other hand, limited scrap inflow and consistent demand for rebar continue to support cut grades.
Meanwhile, the market for finished steel remains divided, with rebar stable due to supply constraints and tariff protection, while HRC has declined despite mill discipline.
The equilibrium appears precarious as September negotiations approach. Suppliers remain steadfast on margin coverage, primes are under pressure, and mills are looking for a downward correction.
A scrap dealer tells Kallanish: “The best-case scenario would be a sideways settlement, but I fear a $5-15/gross ton decline in busheling will materialise. The pressure on busheling is strong as US mills bought lots of busheling ahead of the Brazil tariff decision and the HRC market is not doing well.”
Meanwhile, a major US mill raised its HRC price by $10/short ton on Monday following previous gradual declines (see separate story).
For exports, dynamics are diverging once again.
For US West Coast business, scrap prices held firm in Taiwan last week despite the slowdown in the rebar market. US-origin containerised HMS 1&2 80:20 offers climbed to $315/tonne cfr, up $5/t from the previous week, while buyers aimed for $310/t cfr. With Chinese billet prices falling, local mills are quite price sensitive and have reduced their demand for US-origin scrap.
On the East Coast, the Turkish scrap market is being constrained by the continued lacklustre sentiment towards Turkish finished steel. US-origin bulk HMS 1&2 80:20 offers stood at $346-347/t cfr Türkiye last week, with buying appetite remaining lacking at this level amid falling rebar values and poor steel demand in Türkiye. Downside pressure on Turkish scrap prices is meanwhile rising.
Most market participants remain sceptical about a recovery in the US scrap and steel markets in the first half of September ahead of the US Fed’s rate decision. Major financial institutions expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 September, with the possibility of a further reduction before year-end.
Source:Kallanish
