Posted on 22 Aug 2025
India is set to drive global demand for steelmaking raw materials as its steel consumption and capacity expand, Kallanish notes.
One of the world’s largest miners, BHP, says India will be the single largest source of demand growth in coming decades.
Domestic steel consumption grew 13% y-o-y in FY24 to 136 million tonnes and around 8-9% in FY25 ended in March this year supported by infrastructure, housing and manufacturing.
India targets 300mt/y crude steel capacity by 2030, up from around 150mt/y currently. Achieving this requires an estimated $120 billion in investment. Mills are also urging safeguard duties to counter cheap imports, which have surged more than 40% in recent months.
Geraldine Slattery, president of BHP Australia says India is “emerging as the engine of global commodity demand” as urbanisation and industrialisation accelerate. The miner expects India’s need for iron ore, coking coal and potash to climb steeply, with annual steel demand potentially quadrupling over the next 25 years.
India is already the only major steel-producing economy to grow output consistently since 2019. Crude steel production rose 33% in the past five years, while global production slipped 1%.
International players are responding. JSW Steel and South Korea’s POSCO are exploring a 6mt/y integrated plant in Odisha. Global miners such as BHP expect India to anchor raw material demand growth through to mid-century.
The trend has wider implications. Higher Indian demand will reshape global supply chains for iron ore and coal. It also raises questions on decarbonisation, given India’s reliance on blast furnace technology. How quickly mills shift to electric arc furnace production and low-carbon alternatives will define the next phase.
Source:Kallanish
