Posted on 17 Jul 2025
China's steel prices are expected to stabilise at low levels this month after the dip last month, according to the most recent survey of the steel sector from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released on July 11. The survey covered major wholesale steel markets in South China, Shanghai, and Tianjin.
The NDRC says that domestic steel consumption should remain weak this month amid the high summer temperatures and dull demand. On top of that, any declines in steel production are expected to be limited in light of the relatively strong profitability those steel mills using blast furnaces are enjoying through lower raw materials costs. Nonetheless, low inventories look set to limit the price declines.
The survey assessed six key indices, with both the Sales Price Expectation Index and the Purchase Price Expectation Index for July staying well below the 50% threshold, indicating a lingering pessimism in the domestic steel market.
The Sales Price Expectation Index for July has held largely stable at 25.2%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase from June, while the Purchase Price Expectation Index fell 2.1 percentage points to 29.7%.
The survey showed that the steel market will continue to experience the traditional off-season doldrums in July when the resultant decline in sales will cause inventories to mount. This is reflected in the NDRC's assessment of Sales Volume Expectation Index, which dipped to 36.8%, down 0.3 percentage point from June. Meanwhile, the Inventory Expectation Index advanced to 58.5%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In parallel, market participants had expected further declines – albeit smaller – in both the costs of sales and profit margins in July, according to the survey results.
Correspondingly, the Sales Cost Expectation Index rose to 40.3%, up 4.2 percentage points on month. The Sales Profit Margin Expectation Index also climbed to 35.7% for July, a 2.5 percentage point increase from June.
Source:Mysteel Global
