Posted on 18 Jun 2021
Southeast Asian steel consumption is forecast to grow this year and certain countries are expected to see a rebound to pre-Covid-19 levels, Kallanish understands.
Overall consumption across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam is forecast to reach 74.9 million tonnes in 2021, South East Asia Iron & Steel Institute (SEAISI) secretary general Yeoh Wee Jin said at Thursday’s SEAISI e-conference.
SEAISI's latest forecast is a 6.1% year-on-year increase over 2020. Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to see steel consumption jump back to levels in 2019 (see table below). The major risks which could set back the consumption recovery for most ASEAN countries are a resurgence of Covid-19 infections and a slow rollout and availability of vaccinations, Yeoh said. The regional construction sector faces challenges amid renewed lockdowns, movement restrictions and the lack of foreign labour and expertise.
On the trade front, regional imports of finished steel fell last year whereas exports of finished steel rose. Imports into the six ASEAN countries decreased by 18.2% in 2020 to 41.9mt, from 51.2mt in 2019 due to Covid-19.
On the other hand, regional exports rose to 17.6mt from 15.6mt. The 23% increase in exports is attributed to new investments in Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia's exports rose to 3.6mt from 3.3mt and the increase is from exports of plate and stainless steel. Malaysia's export increase to 5.2mt from 2.7mt is attributed to long products.
Last year, regional players exported around 25.4mt of finished steel and semis, of which 83% went to China, East Asia and other ASEAN countries. The three main export items comprised semis, which were shipped to China and within ASEAN, bars to China and wire rod within ASEAN and to China. The three leading regional exporters last year were Malaysia with exports of 10.1mt, followed by Indonesia with 8.4mt and Vietnam with 2.8mt.
Source: SEAISI
Source:Kallanish
