Posted on 14 Jun 2024
China's indirect steel exports are likely to grow further this year amid resilient overseas demand, with notable increases in the automobile and container sectors, Mysteel forecasts in its latest report.
Mechanical and electrical products, including machinery, metalwork, ships, steel structures, home appliances, containers, automobiles, motorcycles, and rail vehicles, are mostly steel-intensive downstream products, and their exports roughly reflect China's indirect exports of steel, the report notes.
Over January-April, China exported Yuan 4.62 trillion ($637.1 billion) worth of mechanical and electrical products, with the amount rising 6.9% on year and representing 59.2% of the country's total export value, data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC) show.
Table 1 China's exports of major steel-intensive products in Jan-Apr
Products | Exports value (bln Yuan) | YoY Change (%) |
Agricultural machinery | 17.26 | 11.8 |
Food processing machines | 5.8 | 17.2 |
Packaging machinery | 9.9 | 20.3 |
General machines | 148.9 | 15.1 |
Electronic integrated circuits | 355.2 | 23.5 |
Home appliance | 221.7 | 16.4 |
Automobile | 254.9 | 24.9 |
Motorcycle | 28.7 | 18.5 |
Container | 26.9 | 62.5 |
Ship | 100.3 | 108.4 |
Source: GACC
In the first five months, China's foreign trade value increased by 6.3% on year to reach Yuan 17.5 trillion, among which exports expanded by 6.1% on year to Yuan 9.95 trillion, according to the customs statistics.
The report attributes this growth to a mild recovery in the global manufacturing economy this year, which has supported China's foreign trade, including indirect steel exports.
Particularly, it highlights the positive momentum in the manufacturing industry of the United States and robust economic growth in the ASEAN region, with which China has maintained long-term and steady trade relations.
Regarding the whole year, Mysteel reckons that China's indirect steel exports could rise by 9.5% on year to reach around 127 million tonnes in 2024, of which machinery will still contribute the most with 43 million tonnes and containers may see the sharpest growth of 45% on -year. China's direct and indirect steel exports are expected to total over 220 million tonnes this year, according to the report.
Table 2 Forecast of China's indirect steel exports
Products | 2023 (mln t) | YoY (%) | 2024E (mln t) | YoY (%) |
Machinery | 41 | -2 | 43 | 5 |
Metals | 28.5 | 7 | 30.5 | 7 |
Ship | 15 | 4 | 16 | 7 |
Steel structures | 10.6 | 25 | 12 | 13 |
Home appliance | 7.6 | 8 | 8.5 | 12 |
Automobile | 8 | 19 | 9.5 | 19 |
Container | 3.8 | -33 | 5.5 | 45 |
Motorcycle | 1 | -24 | 1.2 | 20 |
Bicycle | 0.4 | -20 | 0.5 | 25 |
Railway vehicle | 0.45 | 200 | 0.5 | 11 |
Source: Mysteel
E: estimated
However, it's worth noting that in the recent couple years, trade frictions on China's exports have been rising, which may have a negative impact on the country's indirect steel exports, as the report points out.
On June 12, the European Union just decided to impose additional duties of up to 38.1% on imported Chinese electric vehicles in July, Mysteel notes.
Source:Mysteel Global
