Posted on 29 Apr 2021
The Turkish flat products export trade has quieted down in the past few days as offers remained high, but several sales were made in hot rolled and hot dip galvanised segment.
Although market indications from major importing markets remain robust, China's announcement of retaining VAT rebates for CRC and HDG have ruffled several market participants' expectations, and the anticipation of prices peaking at current levels are considerable, Kallanish notes.
There is a rising awareness that the difference in rebate application in China could tip the balance in favour of selling more CRC and HDG at relatively lower prices, and possibly only just slightly higher than HRC. India's loss of the European market, due to quota fulfilling, could also produce more HRC offers to other destinations, incluing Turkey, at lower than traditional suppliers' prices if necessary.
Indian HRC was booked in Turkey at $1,025-1,030/tonne cfr this week, but price reduction is possible to gauge sales, as margins are well into several hundred dollars in every producing region, and the quality is good, traders say. China thus far continued to increase HRC offers, and tabled $960-970/t fob yesterday to Turkey, $20/t up on last week's sales, which is just about in line with domestic offers at $1,100/t ex-works, duty paid.
As the EU commission confirmed definitive anti-dumping duties for Turkish HRC imports into Europe, the lowest-taxed supplier sold a lot of HRC to Italy late last week at $1,040/tonne fob, which followed sales at $1,020-1,030/t fob prior. Other suppliers were not in the export market, but may be seeking sales in the coming weeks, as Turkey enters another three week long lockdown, which, coupled with Ramadan, is already affecting previously rebust domestic demand, sources say.
Two large lots of HDG were also sold to Italy and Spain, for August delivery, at $1,035/t fob, this week. There were no CRC exports from Turkey in the past week due to lack of availability, which is still a big issue for Turkish market, sources note.
CRC buyers in Turkey are open to import, with South Korean indications at $1,335-1,340/t cfr, for August delivery, and likely to get booked, sources say. There are also expectations of Chinese material being offered, in view of remaining rebate, which could work out to mutual benefit, as China's VAT export rebate could absorb Turkish import duty of 9%, one source explains.
Source:Kallanish
