Posted on 08 Dec 2022
All Turkish mills have continued to increase their domestic scrap buying prices since last week amid ongoing imported price hikes, Kallanish notes.
Mills' demand for domestic scrap remains strong and they are also seen active in buying consumable supplies such as ferroalloys.
The upward trend in imported scrap prices continues on fresh bookings. A western Turkish mill is confirmed to have bought EU-origin HMS 1&2 80:20 at $379.5/tonne cfr Turkey on 2 December. A France-origin cargo is confirmed to have been booked by a southern mill this week at $380/t for 9,000 tonnes of HMS 1&2 80:20, $400/t for 6,000t of shredded and $400/t cfr for 7,000t of bonus, for second-half-of-January shipment.
European suppliers were seen trying to sell HMS 1&2 80:20 at above $380/t cfr on Wednesday, while offers for premium HMS 1&2 80:20 from the Baltic and US are at above $390/t cfr.
Apart from the two mills that are more active in scrap purchases, most producers are seen bidding at below $380/t cfr for scrap. These levels are unlikely to be accepted by suppliers, with $380-385/t cfr, depending on origin, seeming more viable on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, short-sea scrap bookings are pegging around $360-365/t cfr.
While prices remain firm, scrap suppliers, pointing to tight supply, approaching holidays and increasing dock prices, do not find lower prices likely in the near term.
One supplier says: “The situation is not easy for suppliers either. Suppliers are cautious about selling before buying as collection prices are increasing each day amid tight supply. It is impossible to sell without knowing your cost. On the other hand, what if the price trend reverses after buying? Business has become a perfect gamble.”
A mill says: “There is no confidence in the market. Now that domestic rebar demand has slowed too and prices come under pressure, we have to question how long can Turkey afford increasing scrap prices?”
US December trading started with an upward trend and dock prices in the Benelux are continuing to rise. On Wednesday, European exporters' dock prices were seen mostly at €310-320/t ($326-337) delivered, up from €300/t a week earlier.
While end-user and export demand for rebar continues to be weak, stockists' demand, which was driving the market since last week, has also slowed after Monday. Although most Turkish mills increased their rebar prices to $690/t ex-works on Monday, they were seen offering discounts and decreasing their prices to as low as $675/t on Wednesday amid weak demand.
However, some market participants expect domestic end-user demand to recover in the new year, as they think end users will gain governmental support as an upcoming election pledge.
Turkish shipbreaking scrap prices saw multiple corrections since last week and reached $370-375/t delivered on Wednesday. The lira remained almost unchanged from last week at 18.64/$1 at business close.
Source:Kallanish
