Posted on 07 Aug 2020
The CIS hot rolled coil export market has been idle this week, for a second consecutive week. Having closed remaining August-rolling allocations, some CIS mills are expected in the market next week with September volumes. But they have warned customers these volumes will not be high, market sources tell Kallanish.
One Russian producer is expected to have around 40,000 tonnes of September rolling available for export from Western Russian ports, and this volume is likely to be offered to Turkey first, sources say. Expectations are for $470-475/tonne cfr offers in Turkey, netting back to around $460/t fob Black Sea.
The producer's domestic market allocations are almost back to pre-Covid-19 levels, sources say. With the advantage of selling from Russian Far East ports, the mill has the Southeast Asian market to watch for recovering demand, traders note.
Another two Russian suppliers are also said to have little to no September volumes. One mill has reverted to traditionally low finished flat product export allocations, having focussed on slab exports for many months due to repairs and market dynamics. Another, ex-Baltic shipping mill, told traders it already closed September and with relatively low allocation. It sold it through its distributor chain in Europe.
Meanwhile, the only Ukrainian supplier is perceived by buyers as having some September material. Turkish buyers expect the mill to offer at $460-465/t cfr, while traders also pin the supplier's offers at $450-460/t fob Black Sea, depending on grade. The producer has warned some traders its allocations for September are lower than traditional volumes.
Sources say demand is still bruised by Covid-19 restrictions and uncertainty, but with domestic supply resuming and China's import pull tangible, there is solid support for CIS flat product mills. Besides, global output is not recovering in line with demand in some regions, and firming raw materials prices are providing another basis for increases.
Source:Kallanish
