Posted on 05 Nov 2026
China's construction steel market will face intensifying pressure in November as the market heads into the traditional winter off-season for steel consumption, according to Mysteel's latest monthly report on the sector. Relatively low inventory levels may lend some support, however.
Domestic prices of steel longs are expected to decline moderately this month. For instance, Mysteel predicts the national price of HRB400E 20mm rebar, a key indicator of sentiment in China's long steel market, to fluctuate around Yuan 3,260-3,330/tonne ($453-463/t) ithis month.
End-user demand failed to deliver on peak-season expectations after the post-holiday restocking following the National Day week break over October 1-7. Domestic long steel prices weakened slightly last month, with daily spot trading volume of rebar, wire rod and bar-in-coil among the 237 trading houses under Mysteel's tracking averaging 90,684 tonnes/day, declining by 3.1% from September and by a larger 10.4% on year.
The national price of HRB400E 20mm rebar came in at Yuan 3,305/t on October 30, down by Yuan 25/t on month, while the national price of HPB300 8mm wire rod registered Yuan 3,491/t on the same day, dropping by Yuan 18/t on month, according to Mysteel's assessments.
As for November, falling temperatures and the gradual completion of outdoor construction projects in northern China are likely to reduce consumption, while demand growth in southern China may be insufficient to offset the decline. But without additional policy stimulus, demand is unlikely to provide significant upward momentum for steel prices, the report observes.
On the supply side, construction steel output rebounded slightly in late October, driven by easing costs and improving profitability, but the overall production level remained low, the report pointed out.
For instance, Mysteel's monthly survey showed that by the end of October, average margin losses on rebar sales incurred by domestic blast furnace (BF) mills had narrowed significantly from Yuan 187/t at end-September to Yuan 70/t, as lower raw material prices provided some relief.
Domestic coke prices declined during October, with independent coke producers dropping their prices by Yuan 200-220/t in total, as reported.
Meanwhile, the supply glut in iron ore also weighed on ore prices last month, with Mysteel PORTDEX 62% Australian Fines in Qingdao being assessed at Yuan 649/wmt FOT including the 13% VAT on October 30, down by Yuan 21/t on month, while Mysteel SEADEX 62% Australian Fines also declined by $2.55/dmt on month to sit at $92.25/dmt CFR Qingdao.
Further declines in raw material prices this month are expected to narrow the BF mills' losses, while the price premium on longs over flats may encourage mills to allocate more hot metal to construction steel production. As a result, construction steel supply is likely to recover slightly despite the seasonal decline in hot metal output.
Despite the lower-than-expected demand for long steel in the physical market, overall inventory pressures are low, partly supported by relatively low domestic production last month. Some destocking of inventories of rebar and wire rod occurred after the National Day holiday.
As of end-October, rebar and wire rod inventories at the 137 steelmakers surveyed by Mysteel stood at 1.99 million tonnes, down by 3.8% or 78,400 tonnes on month. Meanwhile, stocks of the two long steel products in the 144 commercial warehouses in the 35 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors, totaled 4.05 million tonnes, decreasing by some 14% or 660,200 tonnes on month.
As for this month, construction steel inventories are expected to decline at a slower pace, with stockpiles potentially starting to build in mid- to late November. The low inventory base should limit near-term pressure, but the shift toward stockpiling could weigh on market sentiment, the report predicts.
Source:Mysteel Global
