Posted on 08 Sep 2026
After dipping for two weeks, hot-rolled coil (HRC) output among the 37 Chinese steelmakers surveyed by Mysteel rose slightly by 68,100 tonnes or 2.4% on week during August 27-September 2 to total 2.95 million tonnes, Mysteel's latest survey showed. This was still lower by 6.1% on year, however.
Two steelmakers brought their hot strip mills back online during the survey week, Mysteel Global learned. As a result, the average capacity utilization rate for strip mills among the surveyed 37 steelmakers increased by 1.74 percentage points on week to sit at 75.39% during the latest survey period. The average operation rate of these surveyed mills also gained by 3.13 percentage points on week to 79.69%.
Despite the small uptick in HRC output, the potential for hot coil production to rise substantially is relatively limited in the short run, given that mills are still suffering from broad losses from high steelmaking costs, according to industry sources. Some are likely to make further cuts in hot coil output during mid-to-late September period, they say.
In raw materials for example, Mysteel PORTDEX 62% Australian Fines remained elevated at Yuan 706/wmt ($105/wmt) FOT on September 4, up Yuan 1/wmt on week, while the national composite spot price for coking coal under Mysteel's assessment jumped by another Yuan 145.6/t or 6.9% on week to Yuan 2,266/t the same day, both including the 13% VAT.
On the demand side, a marginal recovery in end user demand can be seen in the flat steel market, as evidenced by the thinning hot coil inventories. Nevertheless, a meaningful recovery is yet to emerge, with the bullish narrative for a pickup in steel consumption in September still being tested, Mysteel Global noted.
By September 3, inventories held by the 37 sampled mills under Mysteel's tracking had decreased by 4.8% or 34,400 tonnes on week to 689,600 tonnes, the data show.
However, retail HRC inventories remain stubbornly elevated, with the tonnage sitting in the 194 commercial warehouses Mysteel checks nationwide hovering high at 4.85 million tonnes the same day, lower by a minimal 0.31% on week and up by 20.4% on year.
Domestic hot coil prices posted modest gains last week, underpinned by still-firm input costs and expectations for future demand recovery. The momentum is likely to continue this week, Mysteel predicts, though the upside room may still be capped by actual demand.
On September 4, Mysteel assessed the national spot price of Q235B 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,371/t including the 13% VAT, higher by Yuan 12/t from a week prior and making for the fourth successive on-week rise.
In the derivatives market, the most-traded HRC contract for next January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed the daytime session at Yuan 3,381/t on September 4, higher by Yuan 14/t or 0.42% from the settlement price one week earlier, the exchange's data showed.
Source:Mysteel Global
