Posted on 12 Aug 2026
Japan's integrated, electric and special steelmakers are likely to produce 21.2 million tonnes of crude steel during the present July-September quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). If realized, this will represent an increase of 6.4% on-year and a 4.2% rise from the April-June quarter, though in its forecast issued on August 6, the ministry warned against overoptimism.
The total is also more than 1 million tonnes higher than METI's earlier prediction for this quarter announced last month of 20.18 million tonnes, as Mysteel Global reported, and 850,000 tonnes more than the April-June total.
"Although the total would have exceeded the results for the same period last year for two consecutive quarters, there have been no significant changes in the main (steel) demand sectors," METI observed. "A full recovery is still expected to take some time," it cautioned.
Contributing to the on-quarter increase will be the blast furnace at Nippon Steel's Muroran works in Hokkaido. A fire in the 3,014 cu m unit last December caused upstream production to be suspended but after a few false starts, Nippon Steel finally normalized operations on it in late May. Muroran produces about 1 million t/y of crude steel.
On a finished steel basis, the Japanese mills this quarter expect to produce 14.22 million tonnes of ordinary carbon steel (up 3.5% on-year) and 3.97 million tonnes of special steel (up 0.2%) totaling 18.19 million tonnes. Although this would represent a 2.8% increase compared with the same period last year, the level remains low.
Within the ordinary steel total for the July-September period, METI assumes production of H-beams will reach 800,000 tonnes – up 11.3% from April-June – and 1.44 million tonnes of small bars (mostly rebars), down by 12.6% on quarter. The ministry noted that construction-related demand continues to be hampered by labor shortages, stricter observance of working hours, rising materials costs and other factors.
Ordinary steel electric furnace makers whose main products are small bars, generally appear to be making cautious production plans, it said. The latest Japan Iron and Steel Federation data show that during June, production of small bars for use as rebars totaled 495,000 tonnes, down 9.1% on year and recording the first on-year decrease in three months.
The ministry's forecasts – based on hearings from steelmakers – should probably be taken only as a general guide as recently, they have proven to be overly confident. In early April METI had predicted that final January-March crude steel output would total 20.4 million tonnes whereas actual production turned out to be far lower at 20.06 million tonnes, as Mysteel Global reported. For April-June, it had predicted a total of 20.72 million yet the final result was 20.35 million tonnes, 370,000 tonnes lower.
Source:Mysteel Global
