Posted on 24 Mar 2026
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel increased by 49,500 tonnes or 1.7% on week during March 12-18 to around 3 million tonnes, as integrated mills resumed production following the conclusion of China’s ‘Two Sessions’ political meetings on March 12 and the subsequent easing of production controls, Mysteel Global learned.
During the survey week, the hot coil rolling capacity utilization rate among these sampled steel mills rose by 1.22 percentage points on week to average 76.65%, while their average operation rate stood unchanged for the third consecutive week at 78.13%.
With downstream demand for hot coils gradually picking up – albeit at a slow pace – as spring returns, HRC inventories at both steel mills and in traders' warehouses were seen thinning to a certain degree.
By March 19, HRC inventories at the 194 commercial warehouses Mysteel tracks nationwide had declined by 59,200 tonnes or 1.1% on week to 5.12 million tonnes.
As of the same day, HRC stockpiles at steel mills had also dwindled by 43,200 tonnes or 4.8% on week to 849,600 tonnes, Mysteel's tracking shows.
Lower inventories and still-firm support from raw material prices fueled a small price rally in the flat steel market mid-week, though this had fizzled by the latter half of the week.
On March 20, the most-traded HRC contract for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at Yuan 3,297/tonne ($477/t), lower by a small Yuan 1/t or 0.03% from the settlement price one week before, according to the bourse's data.
On the other hand, as of the same day the national price of Q235 4.75mm hot coils had risen by Yuan 5/t or 0.15% on week to Yuan 3,312/t including the 13% VAT, according to Mysteel's assessment.
With hot coil output expected to recover further in coming weeks, loose supply and inventory pressure are likely to constrain any upside potential for HRC prices, while firm raw material costs may underpin coil prices on the lower end, market sources suggest.
Source:Mysteel Global
