Posted on 15 Oct 2025
Global steel demand in 2025 will be flat compared with 2024, sitting at about 1.75 billion tonnes, the World Steel Association (WSA) warns in its latest short range outlook released on October 13. But the association also forecasts a mild rebound of 1.3% for 2026, pushing global steel demand to 1.77 billion tonnes.
"Despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026," Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of the WSA's Economics Committee, commented in a statement.
The steel sector worldwide will experience some tailwinds this year and next, he suggested. "This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected easing in financing conditions."
On the other hand, several negative factors exist including elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers facing the global manufacturing sector, the escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, he warned in the release.
Regarding China, the association predicts an approximately 2% on-year fall in steel demand this year, mainly reflecting the ongoing downturn in the housing market. But the deceleration in 2026 is expected to narrow to 1% as the WSA forecasts the housing market will bottom out.
The WSA attributes the steel demand drop in China to downside risks posed by a tougher global trade environment, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector. In addition, the association warns that lingering financial pressures on local governments across China could constrain infrastructure investments, further dampening demand.
Meanwhile, steel demand in developing countries except China during 2025 and 2026 is expected to rise by 3.4% and 4.7% on year respectively, it says, citing strong steel consumption in India, and some ASEAN and MENA countries to explain the expansion.
For India, the WSA predicts that its steel demand will rise further by some 9% over 2025 and 2026, driven by continued growth in all steel consuming sectors.
For the developed countries, although their steel demand is still forecast to decline further by about 0.5% in 2025, growth is likely to return in 2026 with a rise of 1.5% anticipated as "steel demand in the EU and US is expected to bottom out in 2025 and post modest growth thereafter," based on the WSA's projection.
Specifically, the association predicts steel demand in the EU and UK to climb by 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, mainly because of "increased infrastructure and defence spending on the continent, in combination with improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and improvements in real household income."
Meanwhile, steel demand in the US is expected to rebound by 1.8% in 2025 and grow by the same 1.8% in 2026, thanks to some upside stimulus including mounting infrastructure spending, higher demand in residential construction and private investment, easing financing conditions and reduced uncertainty, according to the WSA release.
Source:Mysteel Global
