Posted on 10 Oct 2025
After sliding steadily during the previous two months, Chinese steel prices are expected to rise in October, lifted by improved fundamentals plus the likely implementation of strengthened economic stimulus policies by the central government, Mysteel's chief analyst Wang Jianhua predicts in his latest monthly outlook.
On September 30, Mysteel assessed China's national composite steel spot price at Yuan 3,468/tonne ($487/t) including the 13% VAT, lower by some 1.5% from the end of August.
Steel replenishment demand among end-users ahead of the country's National Day holiday week (spanning October 1-8) was weaker than market participants had expected, according to Wang. This undermined market confidence in domestic steel demand and caused steel prices to drop rapidly towards the end of September, he explained.
However, "actual steel demand is set to grow in October, supported by the resilient domestic consumption as well as strong exports," Wang maintained.
The arrival of favorable weather conditions after China's scorching summer has meant that the country's building sector has entered a high season for construction steel usage this month, while many home appliance manufacturers have lifted their production targets for October, he explained, suggesting that both developments will likely give a boost to domestic steel consumption.
For example, China's scheduled production of the three most popular home appliances – air-conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines – is projected to reach 29.2 million units in October, higher by 8% compared with the scheduled output for September, according to a latest survey released by ChinaIOL.com, a leading domestic information provider serving the home appliance and refrigeration industries.
Meanwhile, despite rising trade friction China's semi-finished steel exports continue to grow rapidly, a trend that will probably persist through October and help alleviate the loose steel-supply conditions in the country, Wang added.
In August, China's steel billet exports hit a historical high of 1.76 million tonnes, according to the statistics of the country's General Administration of Customs. During January-August this year, China's total steel billet exports soared 292% on year to reach 9.2 million tonnes, the data showed.
On the other hand, China's steel supply is expected to shrink marginally in October, as thinning profit margins have dampened steelmakers' enthusiasm for producing, Wang noted.
By the end of September, the combined hot metal output among the 247 blast furnace steel producers under Mysteel's regular tracking had retreated by 0.2% on week to 2.4 million tonnes/day, bringing an end to a three-week rise. In response to a Mysteel survey, only around 57% of these mills – about 140 companies – said they could make some profits on selling steel products at that time, the lowest ratio for the past five months.
In addition to the healthier fundamentals, the optimistic outlook that market players generally hold for the macroeconomy will also buoy domestic ferrous prices, according to Wang, pointing out that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held in Beijing over October 20-23. "This will focus on deliberating the '15th Five-Year Plan' and is expected to introduce significant economic stimulus policies," Wang stressed.
However, the potential rebound in steel prices should be viewed with caution, he warned, as it coincides with the end of the peak season for the steel market in autumn. "Prices are expected to come under pressure again with the arrival of the traditional winter lull, and steel mills may see another round of price declines in November unless they maintain disciplined production cuts," he concluded.
Source:Mysteel Global
