Posted on 10 Jul 2025
Vietnam has officially imposed anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) starting July 6, covering over 70% of China's steel exports to the country, according to a notice published by Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) on July 4. This move will likely lead to a significant decline in China's HRC exports in the foreseeable future, Mysteel predicts.
The notice clarifies that duties of 23.01-27.83% will be applied to carbon, alloy, and non-alloyed HRC imported from China, in a thickness range of 1.2-25.4mm and a width of no more than 1,880mm, effective for five years.
The products come under HS codes: 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.51.00, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, and 7208.90.90, as well as, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90.
The notice lists over 100 Chinese companies, including many leading steelmakers and trading houses, as subjects to the AD. For example, hot coils shipped by China's second-largest steel producer, Ansteel Group, and the country's largest electric-arc-furnace (EAF) steelmaker Shagang Group, will attract the highest duty of 27.83%.
In fact, Vietnam has already imposed provisional AD duties of 19.38-27.83% on Chinese HRC since March 7, as reported, a decision which has caused a sharp decline in China's export to Vietnam over the past few months, Mysteel Global noted.
In 2024, Vietnam imported 12.7 million tonnes of steel from China, with the products under the HS codes targeted by the latest AD duties reaching around 9.2 million tonnes, accounting for some 72.4% of the total, according to the data released by China's General Administration of Customs.
During January-May this year, the total imports of the products under these codes were just 2.3 million tonnes, lower by a substantial 43.6% compared with the same period last year, the GACC data showed.
"The AD measures aim to protect the Vietnam's steelmakers at home," a market analyst based in Shanghai said. "Backed by a strong price advantage, China-origin HRC is penetrating rapidly into Vietnam's steel market, posing a severe threat to domestic steel producers," he explained.
Last July, the MOIT officially decided to launch an AD probe into imports of certain HRC products originating from China and India in response to a petition lodged in mid-March 2024 by Vietnam's two leading flat rolled steel producers, Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation, as reported.
During the first half of this year, China's export price for SAE1006 3*1210-1265 HRC to Vietnam averaged $481/tonne CFR, while the local average price for SAE1006 3*1200 HRC in Vietnam's largest commercial center Ho Chi Minh was significantly higher at $548/t, according to Mysteel's assessment.
According to data published by Vietnam Steel Association, by 2024 the country's demand for HRC was at 12-13 million tonnes/year, while Mysteel statistics shows its domestic HRC production capacity is just 10 million t/y.
"The supply-demand gap forces the country to source HRC from overseas to meet domestic needs," the Shanghai analyst said. "However, the import volumes have surged excessively in recent years, at times evening reaching twice the level of domestic supply, severely eroding local market share," he pointed out.
With the formal implementation of AD duties, Vietnam's total imports of HRC products under the AD targeted catalog in 2025 may reach approximately 5.22 million tonnes, down by 43% on year, Mysteel estimates.
Source:Mysteel Global
