Posted on 09 Jun 2025
Seaborne coking coal prices have dipped during the week ended 6 June amidst bearish sentiment and the slowing economy.
Kallanish assesses premium hard coking coal at $188.81/tonne fob Australia on Friday, a decline of $5.15/t from $193.96/t the previous week.
On the Singapore Exchange, premium coking coal futures for July settled at $179/t, versus the June settlement price of $187/t in the previous week.
A Singapore-based trader reveals that a deal was done at $193/t for 75,000t of Australian premium-mid-vol hard coking coal Goonyella for 11-20 June laycan on Wednesday.
"The market is very bearish. Less demand for spot. Global economy is slowing down," an Australia-based trader says.
An India-based trader says that despite Indian import needs that may offer some support to the market, coking coal prices are likely to stay subdued in 2025 due to weak global demand. The second trader notes that India’s steel sector is not performing well with the lower demand. Steel mills are slowing further expansion plans due to pricing challenges. He says steel prices in India have been under pressure due to weak global prices.
That trader adds that Indian steel supply growth has been modest due to plant maintenance, and large producers are showing flat output.
A Singapore-based trader, however, opines that the Australian coking coal market is structurally tight, with limited Tier 1 supply, steady Indian demand, and Australian logistics disruption until July. China remains well-supplied, widening the fob-cfr gap, as Australian miners pursue regional price differentiation. That trader notes that US domestic demand has peaked, requiring producers to export over 50% to sustain output, with a supply reset expected in 2026.
He adds that Europe and Japan are unlikely to resell due to tight availability. Indonesian coal is gaining traction in Southeast Asia due to cost advantages.
"Market sentiment is divided: There's a bearish outlook due to the wide China-Australia spread, yet short-term support comes from tight Australian spot availability and continued strength in Tier 1 grades. A key caveat remain whether Chinese mills begin reselling Tier 1 Australian cargoes," the Singapore trader comments.
Source:Kallanish
