Posted on 26 May 2025
The strong rouble, sanctions-related risks and restrictions on exporting finished products made from Russian-origin semis are putting pressure on Russian billet. Moreover, competitive billet pricing from China and ample supply from Turkish domestic mills are further eroding Russia’s market share in Turkey, market participants inform Kallanish.
Market chatter indicates Chinese billet was recently booked at $468/tonne cfr Turkey.
Russian billet is available at $430-435/t fob Black Sea, with freight from Novorossiysk to Turkey’s Marmara region estimated at around $20/t for cargoes of 7,000-10,000 tonnes. However, several mills are reported to have some unsold volume left for June production, a trader notes.
"The exchange rate remains around RUB 79.7 to $1, which continues to weigh on Russian exporters,” the trader adds. “In 2024, the volume of exports of Russian steel billet outside the [Eurasian] Customs Union amounted to 2.96 million tonnes. This is 1.7 times lower than the 2023 level.”
Meanwhile, billet from Russia-controlled territories in Ukraine was heard available at around $425-428/t fob.
Market sentiment was buoyed by Kardemir’s recent sale of 58,000t of billet at $500/t, about $15/t higher than late-April levels. Based on that, Russian billet was seen workable at around $470/t cfr Turkish Black Sea ports and at $460-465/t cfr Marmara, given freight differences, according to a trading source.
“This supported the market. Based on Kardemir’s recent billet sales, workable prices for Russian billet should be around $460-465/t cfr Turkey, both for Black Sea and Marmara regions. But I don’t think anyone in Turkey will pay more than $455-460/t cfr,” another trader comments.
A Turkish buyer assessed tradable levels for Russian billet at $455-460/t cfr Turkey.
In Russia’s wire rod segment, prices were heard at around $495-510/t fob.
Notably, there was some interest from Syria in Ukrainian-origin billet. However, it remains unclear whether this represents real demand and the beginning of a more sustained reactivation of trade flows from the country, which used to be large billet buyer.
With the recent lifting of Western sanctions, hopes are rising for an economic revival in Syria after years of devastation caused by civil war and international isolation.
“There is a real demand for billet and for longs too from Syria. At the same time, there is no willingness to buy expensive Ukrainian or Russian billet and therefore there are no deals. All offers come from China and Asia at cheap prices ... and they [Syrian buyers] want the CIS [billet] at such prices that it is not realistic,” a market participant opines.
Source:Kallanish
