Posted on 29 May 2023
The prospects for the ASEAN region development were among the main topics discussed at the 2023 SEAISI annual conference and exhibition titled Accelerating Progress through Sustainable Development in the ASEAN Steel Industry taking place in Manila on May 22-25. The fair was attended by 388 participants, including steel producers, traders and equipment suppliers.
In 2023, steel demand in the ASEAN-6 is projected to increase by 3.4% to 77.6 million t on the year (see the table below), after inching up by 0.3% in 2022, according to Yeoh Wee-Jin, secretary general at SEAISI. The major drivers to the growth will be Indonesia and the Philippines, where the GDP is expected to rise by 6-7% y-o-y amid the contribution of numerous projects’ realization, promoted by the country’s authorities.
In Indonesia, steel consumption is forecasted to go up by 5% y-o-y, touching 17.4 million t this year, according to SEAISI, while the Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISI) is even more optimistic, predicting 7% growth to 17.9 million t. The support is coming from the main steel-consuming sector – construction. Its share was 76-78% in the last three years and is expected to rise, mainly owing to infrastructure projects, especially the new capital in Kalimantan. “Until the second stage of the project [by 2029] it is estimated about 9 million t of steel are required,” IISI’s director Bimakarsa Wijaya commented for Metal Expert. Participants at the conference are cautiously optimistic, highlighting that more clarity will come after the 2023 elections in Indonesia.
The Philippines’ steel demand is predicted to reach 10.8 million t (+6% y-o-y). Despite the challenging economic environment, including high inflation and interest rates, the government’s plans to boost infrastructure and power development projects are expected to support the steel industry. “I was talking to people in the government today, and they expect approximately 6 million t of steel may be consumed. I personally believe the figure is too high, and the real numbers are between 4-4.5 million t,” a longs producer in the Philippines opined. Most steel suppliers Metal Expert communicated with believe steel demand in the country has the potential to grow. However, many have been complaining about China-invested IF rebar and section producers, who are dumping the prices. The total capacity of such mills is estimated at 1 million tpy in the Philippines, while the local authorities encourage the expansion of IF steelmakers, according to conference participants.
Malaysian steel demand may add 4.1% this year, following Thailand (+3.7% y-o-y) amid better consumption in the construction sector. The slowest growth will be in Vietnam (+0.8 y-o-y), while the number in Singapore is expected to remain the same, ASEAN data shows.
ASEAN-6: steel demand and GDP forecast for 2023
Country | Steel demand, million t | Y-o-Y, % | GDP, Y-o-Y,% |
Vietnam | 22.4 | +0.8 | +6-6.5 |
Indonesia | 17.4 | +5 | +5.3 |
Thailand | 16.7 | +3.7 | +2.7-3.7 |
Philippines | 10.8 | +6 | +6-7 |
Malaysia | 7.8 | +4.1 | +4.5 |
Singapore | 2.5 | 0 | +0.5-2.5 |
Total | 77.6 | +3.4 | - |
Source: SEAISI.
Source:Metal Expert
