Posted on 23 Dec 2022
The latest data released by Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) on Thursday showed that the country's crude steel output in November fell again on year by a slightly larger margin than during October, making the annual total of even 90 million tonnes for this calendar year doubtful, Mysteel Global noted.
In November, Japan produced 7.18 million tonnes of crude steel, down by 10.7% from November last year and by 2.2% from October. The crude steel output total in October was off by 10.6% on year at 7.35 million tonnes, as Mysteel Global reported.
Consequently, the January-November total reached 82.34 million tonnes, lower by a large 6.9% from the first 11 months of last year.
On an annualized basis and failing a hefty uptick in output this month – which seems unlikely – the country's calendar year 2022 production should reach only around 89.8 million tonnes, significantly lower than the psychological threshold of 100 million tonnes that the industry has held as a benchmark for years, and even under the 90 million tonne level, Mysteel Global noted.
By steelmaking process in November, crude steel production by both converter route and by electric furnaces (both carbon and special steel) was down by about 2% from October and by around 10% from November last year.
Output among Japanese integrated mills reached 5.18 million tonnes – representing the 11th monthly on-year decline – and EAFs at 1.99 million, lower on year for four consecutive months, the data showed.
In numerous venues over the past few weeks, Japanese steelmakers have been saying that steel demand for construction is firm. In a steel demand-supply forecast the JISF released on Wednesday, it too cited building and infrastructure demand as holding up.
"In the construction sector, warehouses, logistics facilities and data centres are steady," the federation noted. "In addition, factory (construction) is also recovering, and demand for steel products is expected to increase."
And yet on the basis of product output in November, this is not reflected in the data, just as in October, Mysteel Global noted.
The October-December quarter is usually Japan's peak quarter for construction, especially public infrastructure, because local governments are rushing to exhaust their public works budgets before the end of the fiscal year on March 31, and projects tend to stall in January because of Japan's Oshogatsu New Year holiday.
In November however, production of H-beams reached 303,300 tonnes, off 4.2% from October, that of small bars (including rebars) was down 1.9% on-month at 663,200 tonnes, and that of welded pipes and tubes (including scaffold pipes) was lower by 5.5% at 273,200 tonnes, the data showed.
Indeed, the only improvers in products used in construction were heavy sections (such as sheet piles and channels), where output leapt by 12.3% from October to 64,600 tonnes, and heavy plates which production edged up by 1.3% to 775,100 tonnes.
Source:Mysteel Global
