Posted on 25 Nov 2022
The Southeast Asian long products import market is in disarray, Kallanish understands. Sellers have different views on where the market is heading, while buyers are confused by the lack of market direction and are holding back their purchases.
Offer prices from traders for regional 6.5mm diameter wire rod for January shipment are this week at around $555-560/tonne cfr Manila, from around $560/t cfr Manila last week. These are mostly open-origin offers, for either ASEAN- or Chinese-origin wire rod.
A Manila trader believes that most offers these days are for Chinese material. Chinese exporters ship all types of steel products from multiple ports and mills, and can therefore combine their export sales into cargoes of 30,000 tonnes and more, he says.
On the other hand, Malaysian and Indonesian mills only export billet and wire rod, and have insufficient orders to form the "base cargo" of 10,000-20,000t required to charter a vessel, given the current tepid market. He notes the market is confusing. "Some traders refuse to sell short while others are very aggressive," he adds. Kallanish assessed SAE 1008 6.5mm diameter wire rod on Thursday at $540-545/t cfr Manila, up $5 on-week.
A Malaysian mill is currently offering wire rod at $550/t delivered to Singapore. It is also offering theoretical-weight rebar at around $555/t delivered to Singapore. Chinese-origin rebar is offered at $555-560/t cfr Singapore. A Chinese trader is offering Middle Eastern rebar, currently lying at Singapore port, at $540/t cfr, down $10/t on last week.
“The market is volatile,” a Singapore trader opines. Some buyers expect prices to jump up and fear delivery problems when that happens. Some sellers have also withdrawn from the market because they want to make further gains when prices rise. "There are also sellers who want to sell as soon as possible at current prices because they are still able to cover their costs. Buying interest is weak. No one knows what will happen in the future," another Singapore trader says.
In Hong Kong, actual-weight rebar from the Middle East is offered at unchanged levels from last week at $565-570/t cfr.
Kallanish assessed BS4449 500B 10-40mm diameter rebar at $545/t cfr Singapore theoretical weight, down $2.5 on-week.
Source:Kallanish
