Posted on 29 Jun 2022
ASEAN steel demand is expected to rise in the coming two years as construction activity in the region recovers, according to worldsteel economic studies director Han Nae Hee.
During the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)’s ASEAN steel demand forecast event attended by Kallanish on Friday, Han Nae Hee said construction activity in the region, especially infrastructure building, is expected to be rapid, which will underpin steel demand.
While she remained cautious about the impact of the global recession on the region, she said ASEAN is more insulated from the current global economic situation compared to other regions.
"I think the [steel demand] forecast for ASEAN as we presented earlier probably will not be changed very much," she observed.
Worldsteel projected in April that steel demand in the ASEAN 5, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, will grow 4.8% on-year to 76.1 million tonnes in 2022, and 6.1% to 80.8mt in 2023. It was 72.6mt in 2021.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk assistant manager of corporate regulatory affairs Ilham Arief Gautama says Indonesia's national steel consumption growth is projected to climb 5% to 16.3mt in 2022. It will then rise 6.1% to 17.3mt in 2023, as the Indonesian government focuses on its infrastructure development programme.
Indonesia's apparent steel consumption (ASC) in 2021 increased 2.6% year-on-year to 15.5mt.
Vietnam's Ton Dong A Corporation vice director of export sales Nguyen Truong Thanh Bao also says Vietnam's steel industry is set for strong growth in 2022 thanks to growing domestic demand. This comes amid the government's push for public investment and a subdued pandemic situation.
"By 2030, Vietnam's total demand for steel was projected to reach over $310 billion, of which automobiles alone account for $120 billion, railway $35 billion and subways $10 billion, among others," he said at the event. Vietnam's ASC in 2021 slipped 5.5% to 22.05mt, from 23.34mt in 2020.
Thailand Iron and Steel Institute industrial analyst Worada Jangbangsakae, on the other hand, says Thailand finished steel consumption in 2022 and 2023 should expand 3.7% and 3.5% respectively to 19.9mt and 20.3mt.
"It is expected that in 2022 various economic activities will recover and return to normal," she commented. In 2021, Thai apparent steel demand grew 13.9% on-year to 18.75mt.
Singapore Natsteel Holdings senior executive of strategy and business development Darren Chua said that Singaporean steel consumption is likely to grow 11% to 2.5mt in 2022 and 4% to 2.6mt in 2023, supported by a large pipeline of construction projects.
According to him, public sector projects will remain the key pillar of growth, and pent-up demand is expected to drive steel consumption. Singapore ASC grew by 54.7% to 2.48mt in 2021 from 1.6mt in 2020.
Malaysia Iron and Steel Industry Federation chief executive Ng Morkiang also expects Malaysia's ASC to increase 11% to 7.8mt in 2022 and 9% to 8.5mt in 2023, driven by government stimulus on infrastructure development. Malaysia's ASC rose to 7mt in 2021 from 6.8mt in 2020.
Source:Kallanish
