Posted on 16 Jun 2022
Green hydrogen produced via grid-based electrolysis costs will decline significantly towards 2050, averaging around $1.5/kilogram, according to a new report by DNV.
This levelised cost will be matched by green hydrogen produced from dedicated renewable electrolysis and by blue hydrogen in certain regions, Kallanish learns. In fact, this is already the case regarding blue hydrogen and grid-based green hydrogen in Europe, thanks to surging natural gas prices.
Over the long-term analysis, the global average for blue hydrogen levelised costs will decline from $2.5/kg in 2030 to $2.2/kg in 2050. In regions like the US, with access to cheap natural gas, costs are already $2/kg. In 2020, the average cost for blue hydrogen was $3/kg.
To produce green hydrogen using grid-connected renewable power will cost around $3/kg in 2030, before dropping to $1.5/kg, DNV estimates. To run electrolysis with a dedicated renewable power source will cost $2.5/kg in 2030 and $2/kg in 2050, down from $5/kg in 2020.
Globally, green hydrogen will reach cost parity with blue within the next decade.
DNV’s forecasts don’t specify details on electrolysis technology -- alkaline, PEM (proton exchange membrane), SOE (solid oxide electrolysis) and AEM (anion exchange membrane) -- and other metrics. The company expects electrolyser costs to drop an average of 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2050 thanks to a “massive upscaling.”
“PEM and alkaline costs are likely to overlap considerably from the early 2030s onwards,” DNV says, noting that technologies like SOE and AEM are still early stage, so it’s difficult to estimate their development costs.
The report sets a PEM electrolyser capex of roughly $1,125/kilowatt-electric in 2030 and under $750/kWe in 2050. In 2020, this was estimated at nearly $1,500/kWe. For alkaline electrolysers, capex is expected to fall from $1,000/kWe in 2020 to roughly $870/kWe in 2030 and just above $500/kWe in 2050.
Source:Kallanish
