Posted on 19 Mar 2021
Prices of hot-rolled coil from CIS suppliers maintained ascending dynamic in the past week, with sales to Turkey expanding to Europe amid ongoing price rise in all major producing and importing regions. The corrections in scrap and iron ore prices of the past two weeks have not thus far affected the momentum, although traders are becoming more cautious in anticipation of stagnation of growth and weakening of prices mid-year, they tell Kallanish.
In a series of swift sales with rapid price rises of the past month, a major Russian supplier achieved $860/tonne cfr Turkey this week for a late June load readiness cargo, netting back to around $835/t fob Black Sea. This is $135/t up on concluded deals and $125/t up on offers in the week of 15 February, just over a month ago. The increase in Russian domestic prices, coupled with strong demand, is tempering the supplier's availability for export markets, but it did not prevent it also selling some tonnage for late June loading to Europe, the anti-dumping duty included, at around $920/t cfr, and the same, $830-835/t fob Black Sea net back, traders say.
The supplier's new offers to Turkey are at $870-880/t cfr, as Turkish domestic prices continue to rise, along with export offers. The latter are now at $880-890/t fob for very late June/July load readiness, sources say. The Ukrainian producer is offering and selling the remaining April rolling HRC allocations at $820-835/t fob, depending on the mill it supplies from and the volume and destination of the cargo, although the bulk of sales in the past week was to Turkey also, and some to Italy, sources note.
Two other Russian suppliers are not in the market with sold out April and majority of May rolling books to Europe and Turkey mostly.
Despite corrections in scrap and iron ore prices in benchmark forming markets, flat products' prices continue to rise, with seasonal demand growing from very low stock base supporting the dynamic. But traders are weary of the pace of the increase, and continue to ponder sustainability of the trend, with some suggesting summer will see prices plateauing and subsequently decreasing towards autumn. The notion is driving some traders to the fence, along with expectations of new protection measures from Europe against Asian supplies, which are compatative in the EU import market, and consitute a large bulk of imports.
Source:Kallanish
