Most US sheet sources expect prices to rise by at least $40/short ton over the next few months as the full implication of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union sink in, Kallanish finds.
“The market is moving up, let’s say $20/st for June and July,” says one buyer. “The EU will never make a deal. They will go to the World Trade Organization and win, but that will take at least a year. There will be a deal between Canada and Mexico when the US drops its five-year sunset demand, but hard to say how long that will take. My guess is October, before the [November mid-term] elections.”
One sheet buyer says a $40/st increase is already being shopping around. A second says prices are on open order.
“That should drive some more business to US mills,” he says. “So, higher prices.”
A source at one top-tier mill says it’s too early to say exactly what the tariffs will do for the market in the near-term.
“The administration could get agreements in place with the EU or NAFTA countries, and this goes away quickly,” he says. “Who knows? I’m hearing rumours of Canadian steel not being shipping into the USA market due to tariffs, so how long until we feel shortages in the supply chain? Not sure.”
Kallanish held its hot-rolled assessment Monday at $900-930/st and its cold-rolled assessment at $1,000-1,030/st. All prices are ex-work, domestic mill.