Preliminary report on apparent steel demand in ASEAN-6 in 2017

Posted on 04 April 2018
 

Source: SEAISI
 
Steel consumption in ASEAN-6 surged strongly by 11.4% in 2016 to 77 million tonnes
 
Preliminary estimates showed that ASEAN-6’s apparent steel consumption in 2017 has slowed down, registering a negative growth rate of around 3-5% y-o-y.
 
 
Indonesia and Philippines’ steel demand is estimated to  increase moderately in 2017. This was mainly due to the implementation of infrastructure projects by the governments of the two countries. 
 
Indonesia’s construction industry is expected to grow by an average rate of 6.9% per year between 2017 and 2021.
 
Philippine government’s ‘Build Build Build Programme’ will launch many infrastructure projects, such as national roads, bridges and water resources projects etc. and it is expected that these projects would be completed before the term of the current President ends in 2022.
 
Vietnam’s steel demand is estimated to have slowed down slightly in 2017. Main reason was the slowdown in construction sector, especially the construction of warehouses and factories.
 
It is expected that Vietnam’s steel demand will soon pick up. Government investment in public infrastructure and educational health-care buildings is expected to grow as part of the country’s 2016-2020 Development Plan. The construction industry is expected to benefit from the government’s plans to improve living conditions in rural areas, and the construction of more public infrastructure and buildings.
 
Despite the decline in steel demand in the region in 2017, overall steel production in ASEAN-6 is estimated to have increased in the year.
 
Indonesia and Vietnam are estimated to have experienced strong growth rates in finished steel production in 2017, by double digits
 
Malaysia and Thailand’s domestic steel production is estimated to decline significantly due to the slowdown in steel demand in the country
 
Philippines’ domestic steel output growth in 2017 stagnated.
 
Domestic steel production in Singapore is estimated to continue to increase; however, the volume has yet to reach the high level in 2011.   
 
Total finished steel import in ASEAN-6 is estimated to drop by 8-9% y-o-y in 2017. On the other hand, export is estimated to increase significantly, by 15-16% y-o-y. 
 
Many countries in the region experienced declines in steel import in 2017, including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. 
 
Malaysia’s long steel import is estimated to decline significantly due to the slowdown in construction sector, while import of flat steel rose following the closure of the domestic producer of HRC.
 
Singapore and Thailand’s import of both flat and long steel is estimated to drop significantly. 
 
Vietnam’s import of both flat and long steel dropped by double digit rates in 2017. One of the reasons could be the increase in domestic production to substitute import. 
 
Indonesia’s finished steel import is estimated to increase slightly, owing to the moderate increase in flat steel import, while import of long steel is estimated to have declined.
 
Philippines’ import for both flat and long steel is estimated to increase moderately.
 
Finished steel export in most of the countries in the region is estimated to register double-digit increases in 2017.
 
Indonesia’s finished steel export is estimated to have risen by as much as 50% y-o-y to reach above a million tonnes in 2017. The bulk of the export was flat steel, especially hot rolled plates and sheet. 
 
Thailand’s finished steel export also increased by more than 20% y-o-y in the same period, although its production declined and domestic demand dropped significantly in the year 
 
Malaysia’s steel export is estimated to increase around 30% y-o-y in 2017.
 
Vietnam’s steel export is estimated to increase robustly in 2017, by about a million tonnes, mainly construction steel, both flat and long. Vietnam is the largest steel exporting country in ASEAN.
 

 



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