China's economic boom may slow in second half

Posted on 06 August 2007

CHINA'S economy may expand at a slightly slower pace in the second half of this year, but fixed-asset investment probably will rise by an alarming amount, a high-level official said on Saturday.

China's gross domestic product will likely grow 11.3 percent this year, Fan Jianping, chief of the forecasting department under the National Development and Reform Commission, said at an investment forum.

China's GDP expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter this year, lifting first-half growth to 11.5 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics reported in July.

The official also forecast that China's trade surplus will soar 55 percent to US$275 billion this year despite the rising value of the yuan and reductions in export rebates.

Fan estimated that urban fixed-asset investment will rise 26.1 percent this year, 1.6 percentage points higher than a year ago.

"The high growth in fixed-asset investment will make the current problem of overproduction more serious in the future," Fan said.

Industrial output is likely to grow 17.6 percent in 2007, one percentage point higher than in 2006, he said.

Shanghai daily – August 6, 2007

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