From preliminary data gathered by SEAISI, apparent steel consumption in ASEAN in 2013 is likely to show a healthy growth rate, in the region of 8-10%. Production increased by 6-7% while import jumped 8-10 %. Export, on the other hand, remained relatively unchanged, compared to the previous year.
Among the group, Philippines is expected to register the highest growth rate in steel consumption in 2013, possibly exceeding 16% y-o-y. The surge was mainly a result of the significant growth in long steel demand in the country. Demand for flat product, on the other hand, declined significantly. Both domestic steel production and import are expected to enjoy double digits growth while export was negligible.
Singapore is expected to register the second highest consumption growth rate in 2013, exceeding 15%. This is mainly the result of a huge increase in demand for flat steel. It is projected that demand for flat steel in Singapore may surge by nearly 50% y-o-y in 2013. Domestic steel production for the year dropped significantly due to the maintenance shutdown of NatSteel Holdings Ltd. in the early part of the year. Import, therefore, could register a double digit growth rate of around 20% y-o-y.
Thailand, despite the political turmoil in the country, is expected to still enjoy a healthy growth rate of more than 8% in steel demand in 2013. Growth in demand came mainly from long products with growth of around 17-18% y-o-y. Domestic steel production is expected to see minimum growth rate. Import, on the other hand, rose robustly while export declined.
Vietnam’s apparent steel consumptioned increased, albeit at a lower growth rate when compared to the growth rate in 2012. It is expected that the growth rate in 2013 will be lower than 10% as compared to the rate of 13% y-o-y in 2012. While demand for flat steel increased significantly, demand for long steel dropped in 2013. Overall, domestic steel production stagnated while import rose significantly. Export also increased sharply.
Indonesia is likely to register the lowest growth rate in steel demand in the region in 2013, around 7% y-o-y. Demand for long steel in the country is likely to surge by 15-18% y-o-y in 2013 while flat steel demand declined moderately. Finished steel production increased significantly, registering a double digit growth rate, while import declined sharply. Export also dropped in the same period.